2020 NFL season · January 9, 2021–January 10

Wild Card 2020: who deserved to win

1 of 6 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bills beat the Colts 27–24 in a game they win 43% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Colts 24

Bills 27 Coin flip · Bills win 43% of replays

Rams 30

Seahawks 20 Deserved · Rams win 63% of replays

Buccaneers 31

Washington 23 Deserved · Buccaneers win 90% of replays

Ravens 20

Titans 13 Deserved · Ravens win 73% of replays

Bears 9

Saints 21 Deserved · Saints win 80% of replays

Browns 48

Steelers 37 Coin flip · Browns win 52% of replays

Wild Card 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

Winner	Game	Before kickoff	Replay with same day’s form	Verdict
Browns	48–37 @ Steelers	36%	52%	Coin flip
Rams	30–20 @ Seahawks	41%	63%	Deserved

Luck ranking, wild card

Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#	Team	Game	Wins the replay	Luck index
1	Bills	W 27–24 vs Colts	43%	+57
2	Browns	W 48–37 @ Steelers	52%	+48
3	Rams	W 30–20 @ Seahawks	63%	+37
4	Ravens	W 20–13 @ Titans	73%	+27
5	Saints	W 21–9 vs Bears	80%	+20
6	Buccaneers	W 31–23 @ Washington	90%	+10
7	Washington	L 23–31 vs Buccaneers	10%	−10
8	Bears	L 9–21 @ Saints	20%	−20
9	Titans	L 13–20 vs Ravens	27%	−27
10	Seahawks	L 20–30 vs Rams	37%	−37
11	Steelers	L 37–48 vs Browns	48%	−48
12	Colts	L 24–27 @ Bills	57%	−57