luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · January 3, 2021

Week 17 2020: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Titans beat the Texans 41–38 in a game they win 41% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 17 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bills 56–26 vs Dolphins 40% 95% Deserved
Giants 23–19 vs Cowboys 46% 52% Coin flip

Week 17 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Titans W 41–38 @ Texans 41% +59
2 Vikings W 37–35 @ Lions 46% +54
3 Rams W 18–7 vs Cardinals 46% +54
4 Giants W 23–19 vs Cowboys 52% +48
5 Patriots W 28–14 vs Jets 58% +42
6 Washington W 20–14 @ Eagles 63% +37
7 Raiders W 32–31 @ Broncos 68% +32
8 Browns W 24–22 vs Steelers 71% +29
9 Chargers W 38–21 @ Chiefs 76% +24
10 Seahawks W 26–23 @ 49ers 76% +24
11 Saints W 33–7 @ Panthers 87% +13
12 Packers W 35–16 @ Bears 94% +6
13 Bills W 56–26 vs Dolphins 95% +5
14 Ravens W 38–3 @ Bengals 96% +4
15 Colts W 28–14 vs Jaguars 97% +3
16 Buccaneers W 44–27 vs Falcons 98% +2
17 Falcons L 27–44 @ Buccaneers 2% −2
18 Jaguars L 14–28 @ Colts 3% −3
19 Bengals L 3–38 vs Ravens 4% −4
20 Dolphins L 26–56 @ Bills 5% −5
21 Bears L 16–35 vs Packers 6% −6
22 Panthers L 7–33 vs Saints 13% −13
23 49ers L 23–26 vs Seahawks 24% −24
24 Chiefs L 21–38 vs Chargers 24% −24
25 Steelers L 22–24 @ Browns 29% −29
26 Broncos L 31–32 vs Raiders 32% −32
27 Eagles L 14–20 vs Washington 37% −37
28 Jets L 14–28 @ Patriots 42% −42
29 Cowboys L 19–23 @ Giants 48% −48
30 Cardinals L 7–18 @ Rams 54% −54
31 Lions L 35–37 vs Vikings 54% −54
32 Texans L 38–41 vs Titans 59% −59