2020 season · final
New Orleans Saints, 2020: game by game
The Saints went 12–4 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.4 wins. Luck added 1.6: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–3.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.2.
Every game
How often the Saints win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Buccaneers | W 34–23 | 41% | +59 |
| Week 2 | @ Raiders | L 24–34 | 81% | −81 |
| Week 3 | vs Packers | L 30–37 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 4 | @ Lions | W 35–29 | 64% | +36 |
| Week 5 | vs Chargers | W 30–27 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 7 | vs Panthers | W 27–24 | 43% | +57 |
| Week 8 | @ Bears | W 26–23 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 9 | @ Buccaneers | W 38–3 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 10 | vs 49ers | W 27–13 | 36% | +64 |
| Week 11 | vs Falcons | W 24–9 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 12 | @ Broncos | W 31–3 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 13 | @ Falcons | W 21–16 | 56% | +44 |
| Week 14 | @ Eagles | L 21–24 | 69% | −69 |
| Week 15 | vs Chiefs | L 29–32 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 16 | vs Vikings | W 52–33 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 17 | @ Panthers | W 33–7 | 87% | +13 |
| Wild Card | vs Bears | W 21–9 | 80% | +20 |
| Divisional round | vs Buccaneers | L 20–30 | 44% | −44 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Saints’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.26 | +12.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.26 | +9.4 |
| Kicks | −0.30 | −8.9 |
| Injuries | −0.61 | −24.0 |
| Judgment calls | −1.24 | −53.4 |