luckadjusted

Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Buccaneers, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Buccaneers 38–3 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:42 left): the Saints converted 3rd & 10, worth 9 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 38
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

November 8, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −3

Luck index +30 Saints lucky · −30 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 7, Buccaneers win 3.

  1. 1 NO 38 TB 13
  2. 2 NO 34 TB 16
  3. 3 NO 30 TB 16
  4. 4 NO 34 TB 23
  5. 5 NO 41 TB 34
  6. 6 NO 31 TB 27
  7. 7 NO 22 TB 21
  8. 8 NO 17 TB 20
  9. 9 NO 14 TB 23
  10. 10 NO 23 TB 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 70% of them, Buccaneers 30%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+22.0%
Saints by 9–1621.4%
Saints by 1–825.2%
Level after regulation4.5%
Buccaneers by 1–814.2%
Buccaneers by 9–168.6%
Buccaneers by 17+4.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.2 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 35, without the luck Saints by 28.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 36 yds made · 90% expected
  • R. Succop, 48 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 3 for 28 yards, Buccaneers 5 for 39 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:28 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% NO +2.0 pts
Q3 10:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Jackrabbit Jenkins), 8 yards 0% TB +0.9 pts
Q3 3:08 Defensive Holding on the Saints (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% TB +0.8 pts
Q4 12:46 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +1.0 pts
Q4 11:39 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Rakeem Nunez-Roches), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.5 pts
Q4 8:08 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Marcus Davenport), 15 yards 0% TB +1.1 pts
Q4 7:31 Intentional Grounding on the Buccaneers (Tom Brady), 14 yards 0% NO +0.9 pts
Q4 3:41 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (William Gholston), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.8 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:18 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% NO TB: Punt
2 Q1 11:09 The Saints converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +6% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:42 The Saints converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q1 9:28 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% NO NO: Turnover
5 Q1 4:59 The Saints converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +3% NO NO: Turnover
6 Q1 3:46 The Saints fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% TB NO: Touchdown
7 Q1 2:52 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +3% NO TB: Punt
8 Q2 14:28 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +3% NO TB: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Vita Vea (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ali Marpet (TB G), out · 0.6 pts
  • Vita Vea (TB DT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • O.J. Howard (TB TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 100% · Buccaneers 0%

Final margin
Saints by 35
Luck in points
6.2 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 28.8
Replay with same day's form
Saints 70% · Buccaneers 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · Saints · Buccaneers

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