Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Bears at Titans, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the Bears 24–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Titans were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:53 left): Return touchdown by the Titans, worth 31 points of win probability to the Titans.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 17 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Titans about even · −13 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 1, Titans win 9.
- 1 CHI 13 TEN 7
- 2 CHI 14 TEN 16
- 3 CHI 9 TEN 13
- 4 CHI 13 TEN 20
- 5 CHI 10 TEN 20
- 6 CHI 10 TEN 23
- 7 CHI 9 TEN 25
- 8 CHI 6 TEN 26
- 9 CHI 6 TEN 30
- 10 CHI 10 TEN 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 13% of them, Titans 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 7.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 17.8% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 22.1% |
| Titans by 17+ | 47.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- S. Gostkowski, 40 yds made · 84% expected
- C. Santos, 22 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Bears 5 for 35 yards, Titans 6 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:33 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards | +1% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:54 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% TEN +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:54 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 12:33 | False Start on the Bears, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.8 pts |
| Q3 12:13 | False Start on the Bears (Jimmy Graham), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +1.3 pts |
| Q3 5:44 | Intentional Grounding on the Bears (Nick Foles), 11 yards | +3% TEN +1.0 pts |
| Q3 5:41 | Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% CHI +1.2 pts |
| Q4 5:29 | Face Mask on the Titans (Kevin Byard), 7 yards | 0% CHI +1.3 pts |
| Q4 2:08 | Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEN +0.3 pts |
| Q4 1:55 | Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Jack Crawford), 15 yards | 0% CHI +1.8 pts |
| Q4 1:38 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Amani Hooker), 15 yards | 0% CHI +1.8 pts |
Bears penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:15 | The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +10% TEN | CHI: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 4:31 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +5% CHI | TEN: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 15:00 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% CHI | TEN: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 13:23 | The Bears converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +7% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 6:47 | The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +7% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 4:47 | The Titans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +9% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 6:33 | The Bears converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +9% CHI | CHI: Opp touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 4:53 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Bears fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the TitansSpecial teams | +31% TEN | CHI: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Jadeveon Clowney (TEN DE), out · 0.7 pts
- Adam Humphries (TEN WR), out · 0.4 pts
- Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Brett Kern (TEN P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Mitchell Trubisky (CHI QB), out, replaced by n.foles · 1.4 pts
- Cody Whitehair (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Bobby Massie (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- James Daniels (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Sam Mustipher (CHI OL), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 18% · Titans 82%
- Final margin
- Titans by 7
- Luck in points
- 2.7 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 4.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 13% · Titans 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · 
Bears · 
Titans
More from Week 9 2020
- Packers at 49ers GB 34–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Ravens at Colts BAL 24–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Panthers at Chiefs KC 33–31 · replay 45% for the winner
- Broncos at Falcons ATL 34–27 · replay 55% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings MIN 34–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars HOU 27–25 · replay 60% for the winner
- Giants at Washington NYG 23–20 · replay 30% for the winner
- Seahawks at Bills BUF 44–34 · replay 74% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LV 31–26 · replay 53% for the winner
- Dolphins at Cardinals MIA 34–31 · replay 31% for the winner
- Steelers at Cowboys PIT 24–19 · replay 80% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers NO 38–3 · replay 70% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 30–27 · replay 61% for the winner