Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Ravens at Colts, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?
The Ravens beat the Colts 24–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Ravens win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Ravens.
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:28 left): Return touchdown by the Ravens, worth 36 points of win probability to the Ravens.
Final
 Baltimore Ravens | 24 |
|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Ravens lucky · −54 Colts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ravens win 5, Colts win 5.
- 1 BAL 30 IND 13
- 2 BAL 43 IND 31
- 3 BAL 23 IND 15
- 4 BAL 23 IND 17
- 5 BAL 23 IND 21
- 6 BAL 16 IND 19
- 7 BAL 21 IND 26
- 8 BAL 28 IND 37
- 9 BAL 3 IND 16
- 10 BAL 10 IND 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ravens win 46% of them, Colts 54%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ravens by 17+ | 9.2% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 13.7% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 21.8% |
| Level after regulation | 5.9% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 22.8% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 16.1% |
| Colts by 17+ | 10.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Blankenship, 43 yds made · 85% expected
- J. Tucker, 48 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: Ravens 5 for 55 yards, Colts 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:41 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Chuck Clark), 5 yards | +3% IND +1.0 pts |
| Q1 2:16 | Face Mask on the Ravens (Justice Hill), 15 yards | +4% IND +1.5 pts |
| Q2 8:29 | Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Colts (Julian Blackmon), 15 yards | +7% BAL +2.0 pts |
| Q2 6:44 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% IND +1.8 pts |
| Q2 4:42 | Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Pernell McPhee), 15 yards | +7% IND +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:45 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | +4% IND +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:03 | Intentional Grounding on the Colts (Jacoby Brissett), 0 yards | 0% BAL 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:03 | Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% BAL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:27 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Colts (Mo Alie-Cox), 10 yards | +1% BAL +1.9 pts |
Ravens penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Colts’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:28 | The Colts fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the RavensSpecial teams | +36% BAL | IND: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 8:56 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% BAL | BAL: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 8:29 | Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Colts (Julian Blackmon), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 345 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 | +7% BAL | BAL: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 4:42 | Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Pernell McPhee), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 494 snaps before, position avg 1 per 402 | +7% IND | IND: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 0:55 | The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +7% BAL | IND: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 11:12 | The Ravens fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +13% IND | BAL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 5:47 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +7% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 0:34 | The Ravens converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +9% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- T.Y. Hilton (IND WR), out · 1.0 pts
- Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
- Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Tyre Phillips (BAL G/T), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ravens 98% · Colts 2%
- Final margin
- Ravens by 14
- Luck in points
- 0.1 for the Colts
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 14.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Ravens 46% · Colts 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · 
Ravens · 
Colts
More from Week 9 2020
- Packers at 49ers GB 34–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Panthers at Chiefs KC 33–31 · replay 45% for the winner
- Bears at Titans TEN 24–17 · replay 87% for the winner
- Broncos at Falcons ATL 34–27 · replay 55% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings MIN 34–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars HOU 27–25 · replay 60% for the winner
- Giants at Washington NYG 23–20 · replay 30% for the winner
- Seahawks at Bills BUF 44–34 · replay 74% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LV 31–26 · replay 53% for the winner
- Dolphins at Cardinals MIA 34–31 · replay 31% for the winner
- Steelers at Cowboys PIT 24–19 · replay 80% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers NO 38–3 · replay 70% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 30–27 · replay 61% for the winner