luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · November 5, 2020–November 9

Week 9 2020: who deserved to win

4 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Giants beat Washington 23–20 in a game they win 30% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 9 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Dolphins 34–31 @ Cardinals 33% 31% Lucky
Giants 23–20 @ Washington 41% 30% Lucky
Bills 44–34 vs Seahawks 41% 74% Deserved
Saints 38–3 @ Buccaneers 41% 70% Deserved
Ravens 24–10 @ Colts 47% 46% Coin flip

Week 9 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Giants W 23–20 @ Washington 30% +70
2 Dolphins W 34–31 @ Cardinals 31% +69
3 Chiefs W 33–31 vs Panthers 45% +55
4 Ravens W 24–10 @ Colts 46% +54
5 Raiders W 31–26 @ Chargers 53% +47
6 Falcons W 34–27 vs Broncos 55% +45
7 Texans W 27–25 @ Jaguars 60% +40
8 Patriots W 30–27 @ Jets 61% +39
9 Saints W 38–3 @ Buccaneers 70% +30
10 Vikings W 34–20 vs Lions 70% +30
11 Packers W 34–17 @ 49ers 71% +29
12 Bills W 44–34 vs Seahawks 74% +26
13 Steelers W 24–19 @ Cowboys 80% +20
14 Titans W 24–17 vs Bears 87% +13
15 Bears L 17–24 @ Titans 13% −13
16 Cowboys L 19–24 vs Steelers 20% −20
17 Seahawks L 34–44 @ Bills 26% −26
18 49ers L 17–34 vs Packers 29% −29
19 Lions L 20–34 @ Vikings 30% −30
20 Buccaneers L 3–38 vs Saints 30% −30
21 Jets L 27–30 vs Patriots 39% −39
22 Jaguars L 25–27 vs Texans 40% −40
23 Broncos L 27–34 @ Falcons 45% −45
24 Chargers L 26–31 vs Raiders 47% −47
25 Colts L 10–24 vs Ravens 54% −54
26 Panthers L 31–33 @ Chiefs 55% −55
27 Cardinals L 31–34 vs Dolphins 69% −69
28 Washington L 20–23 vs Giants 70% −70