luckadjusted

Week 7 2020 · October 25, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Saints, Week 7 2020: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Panthers 27–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Saints win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 34 points of win probability to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Saints were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:00 left): J. Slye missed 65-yard field goal, worth 29 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Carolina Panthers 24
New Orleans Saints 27

October 25, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −7

Luck index +57 Saints lucky · −57 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 6, Saints win 4.

  1. 1 CAR 20 NO 0
  2. 2 CAR 14 NO 0
  3. 3 CAR 31 NO 21
  4. 4 CAR 16 NO 9
  5. 5 CAR 13 NO 9
  6. 6 CAR 14 NO 13
  7. 7 CAR 24 NO 26
  8. 8 CAR 14 NO 20
  9. 9 CAR 17 NO 27
  10. 10 CAR 17 NO 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 57% of them, Saints 43%, counting the 9% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+8.0%
Panthers by 9–1614.4%
Panthers by 1–827.0%
Level after regulation8.6%
Saints by 1–824.6%
Saints by 9–1611.7%
Saints by 17+5.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Saints by 3, without the luck Saints by 3.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • W. Lutz, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • W. Lutz, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Slye, 65 yds missed · 54% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 1 for 5 yards, Saints 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:15 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Cameron Jordan), 5 yards +1% CAR +0.4 pts
Q2 12:13 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% NO +0.3 pts
Q2 10:01 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Donte Jackson), 5 yards +3% NO +1.2 pts
Q3 9:58 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CAR +2.2 pts
Q3 5:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Tre'Quan Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% CAR +3.7 pts
Q3 4:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 15 yards +5% CAR +1.4 pts
Q4 8:38 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.8 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:17 The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% CAR CAR: Field goal
2 Q3 9:58 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% CAR CAR: Touchdown
3 Q3 8:45 The Saints converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% NO NO: Field goal
4 Q3 5:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Tre'Quan Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 782 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +12% CAR CAR: Touchdown
5 Q4 12:53 The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% NO NO: Field goal
6 Q4 3:29 The Panthers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +7% CAR CAR: Missed field goal
7 Q4 2:25 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +11% NO CAR: Missed field goal
8 Q4 2:00 J. Slye missed 65-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 16 of 22 from 45+ before +29% NO –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Nick Easton (NO C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Easton (NO C/G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • John Miller (CAR G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 23% · Saints 77%

Final margin
Saints by 3
Luck in points
0.9 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 3.9
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 57% · Saints 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2020 games · Panthers · Saints

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