Week 7 2020 · October 25, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Lions at Falcons, Week 7 2020: who deserved to win?
The Lions beat the Falcons 23–22 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Falcons.
An off day for the Falcons: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:39 left): the Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 52 points of win probability to the Lions.
Final
 Detroit Lions | 23 |
|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Lions about even · −21 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lions win 8, Falcons win 2.
- 1 DET 37 ATL 10
- 2 DET 33 ATL 13
- 3 DET 36 ATL 20
- 4 DET 31 ATL 19
- 5 DET 23 ATL 14
- 6 DET 21 ATL 14
- 7 DET 16 ATL 12
- 8 DET 21 ATL 19
- 9 DET 17 ATL 20
- 10 DET 20 ATL 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Falcons
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Falcons: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions offenseEPA per play gained | +0.12 | +0.09 | better by 0.03 |
| Lions defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.16 | +0.16 | better by 0.00 |
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | +0.16 | +0.11 | better by 0.04 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.16 | better by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lions win 79% of them, Falcons 21%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lions by 17+ | 27.9% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 22.5% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 28.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 11.3% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 5.8% |
| Falcons by 17+ | 1.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Prater, 50 yds made · 73% expected
- M. Prater, 51 yds made · 72% expected
- M. Prater, 46 yds missed · 80% expected
- M. Prater, 49 yds made · 74% expected
Penalties: Lions 5 for 50 yards, Falcons 8 for 53 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:44 | Roughing the Passer on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 4 yards | +6% DET +2.5 pts |
| Q2 13:12 | Defensive Holding on the Lions (Jayron Kearse), 5 yards | 0% DET +0.3 pts |
| Q2 12:28 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Calvin Ridley), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% DET +3.0 pts |
| Q2 11:46 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Jeff Okudah), 15 yards | +10% ATL +2.8 pts |
| Q2 8:53 | Roughing the Passer on the Falcons (Grady Jarrett), 12 yards | +6% DET +1.5 pts |
| Q2 6:21 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Falcons (Dante Fowler), 1 yard | 0% DET +0.1 pts |
| Q2 0:17 | False Start on the Lions (Matthew Stafford), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 11:27 | Offensive Holding on the Lions (Jesse James), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +16% ATL +3.4 pts |
| Q3 4:59 | Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Falcons (Olamide Zaccheaus), 5 yards | +2% DET +0.4 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards | +4% DET +1.3 pts |
| Q4 14:06 | False Start on the Falcons (Luke Stocker), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DET +1.0 pts |
| Q4 9:03 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Falcons, 6 yards · pre-snap | +8% DET +0.7 pts |
| Q4 0:02 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Lions (Danny Amendola), 15 yards | +12% ATL +1.4 pts |
Lions penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Falcons’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 12:14 | The Lions converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +14% DET | DET: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 11:27 | Offensive Holding on the Lions (Jesse James), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 843 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 | +16% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 8:24 | The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +13% ATL | DET: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 12:01 | The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +13% DET | ATL: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 7:37 | M. Prater missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 12 of 18 from 45+ before | +27% ATL | DET: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 5:39 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +52% DET | ATL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:18 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +35% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:02 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Lions (Danny Amendola), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 834 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 | +12% ATL | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Darqueze Dennard (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Damontae Kazee (ATL SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Damontae Kazee (ATL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Desmond Trufant (DET CB), out · 0.6 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lions 58% · Falcons 42%
- Final margin
- Lions by 1
- Luck in points
- 0.3 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lions by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Lions 79% · Falcons 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2020 games · 
Lions · 
Falcons
More from Week 7 2020
- Giants at Eagles PHI 22–21 · replay 82% for the winner
- Bills at Jets BUF 18–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Panthers at Saints NO 27–24 · replay 43% for the winner
- Browns at Bengals CLE 37–34 · replay 81% for the winner
- Cowboys at Washington WAS 25–3 · replay 91% for the winner
- Packers at Texans GB 35–20 · replay 87% for the winner
- Steelers at Titans PIT 27–24 · replay 63% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Raiders TB 45–20 · replay 46% for the winner
- Jaguars at Chargers LAC 39–29 · replay 84% for the winner
- Chiefs at Broncos KC 43–16 · replay 84% for the winner
- 49ers at Patriots SF 33–6 · replay 83% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals ARI 37–34 · replay 14% for the winner
- Bears at Rams LA 24–10 · replay 78% for the winner