luckadjusted

Week 7 2020 · October 25, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Washington, Week 7 2020: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Cowboys 25–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, Washington win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:00 left): Washington were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 9 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 3
Washington Football Team 25

October 25, 2020 · FedExField · Closing line: Cowboys −1

Luck index +9 Washington about even · −9 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 1, Washington win 9.

  1. 1 DAL 23 WAS 17
  2. 2 DAL 24 WAS 27
  3. 3 DAL 3 WAS 9
  4. 4 DAL 21 WAS 29
  5. 5 DAL 10 WAS 20
  6. 6 DAL 9 WAS 22
  7. 7 DAL 10 WAS 26
  8. 8 DAL 14 WAS 33
  9. 9 DAL 0 WAS 23
  10. 10 DAL 3 WAS 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 9% of them, Washington 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+0.4%
Cowboys by 9–161.9%
Cowboys by 1–85.7%
Level after regulation2.0%
Washington by 1–816.7%
Washington by 9–1623.6%
Washington by 17+49.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.3 points to the Washington: the final margin was Washington by 22, without the luck Washington by 17.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 45 yds made · 78% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 44 yds missed · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 6 for 49 yards, Washington 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:22 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Aldon Smith), 4 yards · pre-snap +4% WAS +0.9 pts
Q1 9:53 Encroachment on Washington (Daron Payne), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.8 pts
Q1 1:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 19 yards +4% WAS +1.1 pts
Q2 11:21 Defensive Offside on Washington (Montez Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.5 pts
Q2 6:27 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Leighton Vander Esch), 5 yards +1% WAS +1.6 pts
Q2 6:19 Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.4 pts
Q3 6:32 Disqualification on Washington, 15 yards +1% DAL +1.8 pts
Q4 13:18 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards 0% WAS +1.5 pts
Q4 7:15 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (DeMarcus Lawrence), 6 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +1.8 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:22 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Aldon Smith), 4 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 345 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +4% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 10:11 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +4% DAL WAS: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 10:00 Washington were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +9% DAL WAS: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:20 Washington converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:58 G. Zuerlein made 45-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 10 of 16 from 45+ before +7% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
6 Q1 1:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 19 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1543 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +4% WAS WAS: Punt
7 Q2 10:48 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% WAS DAL: Punt
8 Q2 5:45 Washington converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Isaiah Wright (WAS WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Steven Sims (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Matthew Ioannidis (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Geron Christian (WAS T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by a.dalton · 6.0 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out · 0.8 pts
  • La'el Collins (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brandon Knight (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Joe Looney (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trysten Hill (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 0% · Washington 100%

Final margin
Washington by 22
Luck in points
4.2 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 17.8
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 9% · Washington 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2020 games · Cowboys · Washington

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