luckadjusted

Week 15 2020 · December 17, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Raiders, Week 15 2020: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Raiders 30–27, but the Raiders played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 24 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 3:22 left): D. Carlson made 23-yard field goal, worth 64 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final (OT)

Los Angeles Chargers 30
Las Vegas Raiders 27

December 17, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −3.5

Luck index +68 Chargers very lucky · −68 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 3, Raiders win 7.

  1. 1 LAC 34 LV 17
  2. 2 LAC 20 LV 13
  3. 3 LAC 30 LV 28
  4. 4 LAC 31 LV 33
  5. 5 LAC 9 LV 13
  6. 6 LAC 20 LV 27
  7. 7 LAC 20 LV 31
  8. 8 LAC 31 LV 45
  9. 9 LAC 23 LV 41
  10. 10 LAC 17 LV 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 32% of them, Raiders 68%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+4.2%
Chargers by 9–168.9%
Chargers by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation2.2%
Raiders by 1–827.1%
Raiders by 9–1620.5%
Raiders by 17+18.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 3, without the luck Chargers by 2.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Badgley, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Badgley, 47 yds missed · 74% expected
  • M. Badgley, 51 yds missed · 67% expected
  • D. Carlson, 23 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 3 for 20 yards, Raiders 5 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:18 False Start on the Chargers (Keenan Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.7 pts
Q3 14:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Trayvon Mullen), 15 yards +3% LAC +1.7 pts
Q3 7:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 10 yards +6% LV +1.5 pts
Q3 4:26 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% LV +0.8 pts
Q3 2:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Trayvon Mullen), 10 yards +7% LAC +2.3 pts
Q4 13:04 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% LAC +1.7 pts
QOT 3:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Trayvon Mullen), 20 yards +12% LAC +1.4 pts
QOT 2:19 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Raiders (Nick Kwiatkoski), 1 yard +3% LAC +0.2 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 6:23 The Raiders converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +12% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q4 0:58 M. Badgley missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 6 of 15 from 45+ before +25% LV LAC: Touchdown
3 Q4 0:04 The Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +45% LV LV: Field goal
4 QOT 3:26 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +40% LAC LV: Field goal
5 QOT 3:22 D. Carlson made 23-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +64% LV –
6 QOT 3:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Trayvon Mullen), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 1613 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +12% LAC LAC: Touchdown
7 QOT 2:00 The Chargers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +20% LAC LAC: Touchdown
8 QOT 1:32 The Chargers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +19% LAC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nevin Lawson (LV CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Brandon Parker (LV T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Clelin Ferrell (LV DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Maliek Collins (LV DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nicholas Morrow (LV LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Johnathan Abram (LV S), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jeff Heath (LV S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bryan Bulaga (LAC T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Melvin Ingram (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Nasir Adderley (LAC S), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 72% · Raiders 28%

Final margin
Chargers by 3
Luck in points
0.2 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 2.8
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 32% · Raiders 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2020 games · Chargers · Raiders

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