luckadjusted

Week 15 2020 · December 20, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Colts, Week 15 2020: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Texans 27–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:28 left): the Texans were stopped on 4th & 5, worth 15 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Houston Texans 20
Indianapolis Colts 27

December 20, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −7.5

Luck index +17 Colts about even · −17 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 2, Colts win 8.

  1. 1 HOU 27 IND 17
  2. 2 HOU 17 IND 14
  3. 3 HOU 19 IND 21
  4. 4 HOU 20 IND 24
  5. 5 HOU 20 IND 27
  6. 6 HOU 14 IND 23
  7. 7 HOU 16 IND 28
  8. 8 HOU 27 IND 42
  9. 9 HOU 10 IND 30
  10. 10 HOU 6 IND 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 17% of them, Colts 83%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+1.1%
Texans by 9–163.9%
Texans by 1–810.5%
Level after regulation2.8%
Colts by 1–828.6%
Colts by 9–1623.4%
Colts by 17+29.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.5 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 7, without the luck Colts by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 53 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 5 for 24 yards, Colts 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:52 Encroachment on the Texans (Ross Blacklock), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND 0.0 pts
Q2 4:56 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.6 pts
Q2 0:54 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Justin Houston), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% HOU +1.0 pts
Q2 0:16 Encroachment on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q3 7:50 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% IND +2.0 pts
Q3 2:23 False Start on the Texans (Jordan Akins), 4 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +1.0 pts
Q4 2:38 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards +7% HOU +0.6 pts
Q4 1:44 Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (Xavier Rhodes), 15 yards +4% HOU +1.7 pts
Q4 0:56 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.4 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:25 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedThe Texans fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% IND HOU: Punt
2 Q3 7:50 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% IND IND: Field goal
3 Q3 7:35 The Texans converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q3 2:07 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +8% IND HOU: Field goal
5 Q4 13:36 R. Blankenship made 53-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before +9% IND IND: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:21 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +12% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:38 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 551 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +7% HOU HOU: Turnover
8 Q4 0:28 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedThe Texans fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Will Fuller (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Bradley Roby (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Randall Cobb (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Reid (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • P.J. Hall (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Duke Johnson (HOU RB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 17% · Colts 83%

Final margin
Colts by 7
Luck in points
5.5 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Texans 17% · Colts 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2020 games · Texans · Colts

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