Week 15 2020 · December 20, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
49ers at Cowboys, Week 15 2020: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys stole one. They beat the 49ers 41–33, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Before kickoff the 49ers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:06 left): the Cowboys converted 3rd & 7, worth 15 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Final
 San Francisco 49ers | 33 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +82 Cowboys very lucky · −82 49ers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. 49ers win 8, Cowboys win 2.
- 1 SF 55 DAL 21
- 2 SF 46 DAL 23
- 3 SF 38 DAL 20
- 4 SF 31 DAL 16
- 5 SF 41 DAL 29
- 6 SF 32 DAL 23
- 7 SF 33 DAL 27
- 8 SF 40 DAL 37
- 9 SF 16 DAL 19
- 10 SF 14 DAL 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
49ers win 82% of them, Cowboys 18%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| 49ers by 17+ | 39.3% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 19.8% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 21.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 9.9% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 6.0% |
| Cowboys by 17+ | 2.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Zuerlein, 48 yds made · 76% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 60 yds missed · 58% expected
- R. Gould, 41 yds made · 87% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 46 yds made · 78% expected
- R. Gould, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Penalties: 49ers 4 for 39 yards, Cowboys 5 for 58 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:12 | False Start on the 49ers (Ross Dwelley), 4 yards · pre-snap | +3% DAL +1.0 pts |
| Q1 12:22 | Illegal Formation on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SF +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:16 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% DAL +2.4 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% DAL +1.5 pts |
| Q3 12:51 | Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 15 yards | +7% SF +1.9 pts |
| Q3 6:24 | Defensive Holding on the Cowboys, 5 yards | +2% SF +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:34 | Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers, 15 yards | +6% DAL +1.4 pts |
| Q4 3:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 18 yards | +12% SF +2.4 pts |
| Q4 1:50 | Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (DeMarcus Lawrence), 15 yards | +2% SF +1.3 pts |
49ers penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Cowboys’ chance of winning
As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:07 | The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe 49ers fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% DAL | SF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 0:48 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +7% DAL | DAL: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q2 0:27 | G. Zuerlein missed 60-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 17 of 26 from 45+ before | +9% SF | DAL: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 8:06 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +15% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 12:48 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +7% SF | DAL: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 10:34 | The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +10% DAL | SF: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 10:12 | G. Zuerlein made 46-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 17 of 27 from 45+ before | +10% DAL | DAL: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 3:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1359 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 | +12% SF | SF: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Cameron Erving (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Ezekiel Elliott (DAL RB), out · 0.5 pts
- Rashard Robinson (DAL CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Cameron Erving (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Chris Jones (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Jimmy Garoppolo (SF QB), out (IR), replaced by n.mullens · 4.5 pts
- George Kittle (SF TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Deebo Samuel (SF WR), out · 1.1 pts
- Jason Verrett (SF CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Jamar Taylor (SF DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Jaquiski Tartt (SF S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tom Compton (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Hroniss Grasu (SF C), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
49ers 16% · Cowboys 84%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 8
- Luck in points
- 6.2 for the Cowboys
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- 49ers 82% · Cowboys 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2020 games · 
49ers · 
Cowboys
More from Week 15 2020
- Chargers at Raiders LAC 30–27 · replay 32% for the winner
- Bills at Broncos BUF 48–19 · replay 94% for the winner
- Panthers at Packers GB 24–16 · replay 81% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings CHI 33–27 · replay 43% for the winner
- Lions at Titans TEN 46–25 · replay 84% for the winner
- Texans at Colts IND 27–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Jaguars at Ravens BAL 40–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins MIA 22–12 · replay 76% for the winner
- Seahawks at Washington SEA 20–15 · replay 91% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Falcons TB 31–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Jets at Rams NYJ 23–20 · replay 21% for the winner
- Eagles at Cardinals ARI 33–26 · replay 85% for the winner
- Chiefs at Saints KC 32–29 · replay 65% for the winner
- Browns at Giants CLE 20–6 · replay 79% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals CIN 27–17 · replay 84% for the winner