luckadjusted

Week 15 2020 · December 20, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Giants, Week 15 2020: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Giants 20–6 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:22 left): the Giants were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 12 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 20
New York Giants 6

December 20, 2020 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Browns −6

Luck index +21 Browns about even · −21 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 8, Giants win 2.

  1. 1 CLE 23 NYG 0
  2. 2 CLE 28 NYG 10
  3. 3 CLE 28 NYG 14
  4. 4 CLE 27 NYG 16
  5. 5 CLE 24 NYG 16
  6. 6 CLE 6 NYG 0
  7. 7 CLE 17 NYG 13
  8. 8 CLE 19 NYG 17
  9. 9 CLE 14 NYG 17
  10. 10 CLE 14 NYG 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 79% of them, Giants 21%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+21.7%
Browns by 9–1624.7%
Browns by 1–829.6%
Level after regulation5.1%
Giants by 1–812.3%
Giants by 9–165.5%
Giants by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to the Giants: the final margin was Browns by 14, without the luck Browns by 14.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Gano, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 6 for 60 yards, Giants 2 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 0:27 Taunting on the Browns (Jarvis Landry), 15 yards +2% NYG +1.2 pts
Q3 6:07 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Browns, 5 yards 0% NYG +0.5 pts
Q4 14:23 Clipping on the Browns, 15 yards, wiping out the play +4% NYG +3.1 pts
Q4 13:43 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.9 pts
Q4 11:38 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +1% CLE +0.8 pts
Q4 10:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Cam Brown), 15 yards +1% CLE +1.5 pts
Q4 4:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Elijah Lee), 15 yards 0% NYG +1.2 pts
Q4 1:14 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.6 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:46 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% CLE NYG: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 11:41 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% CLE NYG: Field goal
3 Q1 7:08 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +6% NYG CLE: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:37 The Giants converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +12% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q2 12:36 The Browns converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +8% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q2 12:31 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 5:22 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +12% CLE NYG: End of half
8 Q3 3:36 The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out, replaced by c.mccoy · 1.3 pts
  • James Bradberry (NYG CB), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Darnay Holmes (NYG CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kyler Fackrell (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Andrew Sendejo (CLE S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ronnie Harrison (CLE S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 100% · Giants 0%

Final margin
Browns by 14
Luck in points
0.9 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 14.9
Replay with same day's form
Browns 79% · Giants 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2020 games · Browns · Giants

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