luckadjusted

Week 15 2020 · December 20, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Rams, Week 15 2020: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Rams 23–20, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Rams were 90% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:00 left): the Rams were stopped on 4th & 4, worth 17 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 23
Los Angeles Rams 20

December 20, 2020 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −17.5

Luck index +79 Jets very lucky · −79 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 2, Rams win 8.

  1. 1 NYJ 24 LA 10
  2. 2 NYJ 27 LA 24
  3. 3 NYJ 21 LA 23
  4. 4 NYJ 20 LA 24
  5. 5 NYJ 10 LA 16
  6. 6 NYJ 0 LA 10
  7. 7 NYJ 10 LA 23
  8. 8 NYJ 10 LA 27
  9. 9 NYJ 2 LA 22
  10. 10 NYJ 13 LA 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 21% of them, Rams 79%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+2.8%
Jets by 9–165.6%
Jets by 1–812.1%
Level after regulation4.5%
Rams by 1–825.3%
Rams by 9–1622.4%
Rams by 17+27.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 3, without the luck Jets by 2.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Ficken, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • S. Ficken, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 45 yds made · 82% expected
  • S. Ficken, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Gay, 42 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 6 for 61 yards, Rams 5 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:19 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% NYJ +2.0 pts
Q1 4:02 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +2% LA +1.0 pts
Q1 0:30 False Start on the Rams (Tyler Higbee), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q2 10:21 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (John Franklin-Myers), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% LA +2.2 pts
Q2 9:46 Face Mask on the Rams (Justin Hollins), 8 yards +1% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q2 2:15 Face Mask on the Jets (Blessuan Austin), 15 yards +4% LA +2.0 pts
Q4 14:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Blessuan Austin), 11 yards +3% LA +1.2 pts
Q4 13:15 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Trevon Wesco), 15 yards +4% LA +1.3 pts
Q4 10:06 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Jabari Zuniga), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% LA +0.8 pts
Q4 7:42 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +3% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q4 4:53 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Rams (Tyler Higbee), 10 yards +5% NYJ +1.1 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:35 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:52 The Jets converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +10% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:33 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q2 14:20 Blocked punt by the JetsSpecial teams +6% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
5 Q4 6:25 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +6% LA NYJ: Punt
6 Q4 4:05 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +9% NYJ LA: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 4:00 The Rams were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +17% NYJ –
8 Q4 2:17 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% NYJ NYJ: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Andrew Whitworth (LA OL), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (LA S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kai Forbath (LA K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Micah Kiser (LA ILB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Brian Poole (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Bradley McDougald (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Jenkins (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Greg Van Roten (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Lewis (NYJ OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ashtyn Davis (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Folorunso Fatukasi (NYJ DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 58% · Rams 42%

Final margin
Jets by 3
Luck in points
0.6 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Jets 21% · Rams 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2020 games · Jets · Rams

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