luckadjusted

Week 15 2020 · December 21, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Bengals, Week 15 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Steelers 27–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 8 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Steelers.

An off day for the Steelers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 79% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Steelers were 86% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:55 left): the Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 16 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 17
Cincinnati Bengals 27

December 21, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −14.5

Luck index +16 Bengals about even · −16 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 2, Bengals win 8.

  1. 1 PIT 26 CIN 13
  2. 2 PIT 19 CIN 15
  3. 3 PIT 21 CIN 23
  4. 4 PIT 26 CIN 30
  5. 5 PIT 14 CIN 21
  6. 6 PIT 13 CIN 24
  7. 7 PIT 14 CIN 27
  8. 8 PIT 13 CIN 29
  9. 9 PIT 13 CIN 33
  10. 10 PIT 20 CIN 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Steelers

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 79% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%.

62 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Steelers offenseEPA per play gained −0.13 +0.07 worse by 0.20
Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.11 +0.02 better by 0.13
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained −0.11 +0.07 worse by 0.18
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed −0.13 +0.16 better by 0.30

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 16% of them, Bengals 84%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+1.4%
Steelers by 9–164.4%
Steelers by 1–810.2%
Level after regulation1.3%
Bengals by 1–818.6%
Bengals by 9–1623.0%
Bengals by 17+41.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Bengals by 10, without the luck Bengals by 16.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • A. Seibert, 55 yds missed · 59% expected
  • C. Boswell, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • A. Seibert, 33 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 4 for 30 yards, Bengals 2 for 16 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:49 False Start on the Bengals (Tee Higgins), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.4 pts
Q2 9:04 False Start on the Steelers (Vance McDonald), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.7 pts
Q2 6:01 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers, 15 yards +2% CIN +1.4 pts
Q2 4:20 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% CIN +1.1 pts
Q3 0:12 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.4 pts
Q4 5:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (William Jackson III), 11 yards +4% PIT +4.1 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:35 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +7% PIT CIN: Punt
2 Q1 11:11 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% CIN PIT: Punt
3 Q1 9:22 The Steelers fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CIN PIT: Punt
4 Q1 1:44 A. Seibert missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 5 of 9 from 45+ before +8% PIT CIN: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:55 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Steelers fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% CIN PIT: Turnover
6 Q2 6:01 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Steelers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +9% CIN PIT: Punt
7 Q3 4:03 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% PIT CIN: Punt
8 Q3 3:03 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +4% CIN PIT: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by r.finley · 4.5 pts
  • Jonah Williams (CIN OT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Redmond (CIN G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Randy Bullock (CIN K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Logan Wilson (CIN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Matt Feiler (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bud Dupree (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • James Conner (PIT RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Vince Williams (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Robert Spillane (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Feiler (PIT OT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 2% · Bengals 98%

Final margin
Bengals by 10
Luck in points
6.3 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 16.3
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 16% · Bengals 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2020 games · Steelers · Bengals

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