luckadjusted

Week 15 2020 · December 20, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Washington, Week 15 2020: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat Washington 20–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10. Washington had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 21 points of win probability to Washington.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:32 left): Defensive Offside on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 20
Washington Football Team 15

December 20, 2020 · FedExField · Closing line: Seahawks −6

Luck index +9 Seahawks about even · −9 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Washington win 1.

  1. 1 SEA 35 WAS 5
  2. 2 SEA 40 WAS 17
  3. 3 SEA 28 WAS 9
  4. 4 SEA 23 WAS 7
  5. 5 SEA 26 WAS 13
  6. 6 SEA 23 WAS 13
  7. 7 SEA 28 WAS 20
  8. 8 SEA 19 WAS 14
  9. 9 SEA 31 WAS 28
  10. 10 SEA 16 WAS 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 91% of them, Washington 9%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+50.9%
Seahawks by 9–1622.1%
Seahawks by 1–817.5%
Level after regulation1.6%
Washington by 1–85.5%
Washington by 9–161.9%
Washington by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to the Washington: the final margin was Seahawks by 5, without the luck Seahawks by 11.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Myers, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 48 yds made · 72% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 4 for 45 yards, Washington 6 for 41 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:04 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +7% WAS +2.2 pts
Q1 6:29 False Start on Washington (Khaleke Hudson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.2 pts
Q2 12:32 Defensive Offside on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +18% WAS +3.7 pts
Q2 11:05 Defensive Offside on Washington (Montez Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.6 pts
Q2 2:07 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (Shaun Dion Hamilton), 17 yards +1% SEA +1.6 pts
Q3 12:36 False Start on Washington (Terry McLaurin), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +1.0 pts
Q3 6:27 False Start on the Seahawks (Will Dissly), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.6 pts
Q3 5:17 Offensive Holding on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 4 yards +1% SEA +0.3 pts
Q3 3:43 Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Carlos Dunlap), 15 yards +2% WAS +2.0 pts
Q4 2:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (K.J. Wright), 15 yards +11% WAS +2.4 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:37 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% SEA SEA: Field goal
2 Q1 10:04 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% WAS WAS: Punt
3 Q2 12:32 Defensive Offside on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 10 flags in 1241 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +18% WAS SEA: Field goal
4 Q4 5:51 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% WAS SEA: Punt
5 Q4 3:39 Washington fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 2:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (K.J. Wright), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 2089 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +11% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:08 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +10% SEA WAS: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:03 Washington were stopped on 4th & 243rd & 4th downs · 13% expected +16% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Landon Collins (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Deshazor Everett (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Alex Smith (WAS QB), out, replaced by d.haskins · 0.2 pts
  • Brandon Shell (SEA T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Greg Olsen (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Quinton Dunbar (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tre Flowers (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 96% · Washington 4%

Final margin
Seahawks by 5
Luck in points
6.9 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 11.9
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 91% · Washington 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2020 games · Seahawks · Washington

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