luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · December 17, 2020–December 21

Week 15 2020: who deserved to win

4 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Cowboys beat the 49ers 41–33 in a game they win 18% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 15 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Jets 23–20 @ Rams 10% 21% Lucky
Bengals 27–17 vs Steelers 14% 84% Deserved
Cowboys 41–33 vs 49ers 38% 18% Lucky
Chargers 30–27 @ Raiders 40% 32% Lucky
Bears 33–27 @ Vikings 43% 43% Coin flip
Dolphins 22–12 vs Patriots 46% 76% Deserved

Week 15 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Cowboys W 41–33 vs 49ers 18% +82
2 Jets W 23–20 @ Rams 21% +79
3 Chargers W 30–27 @ Raiders 32% +68
4 Bears W 33–27 @ Vikings 43% +57
5 Chiefs W 32–29 @ Saints 65% +35
6 Buccaneers W 31–27 @ Falcons 75% +25
7 Dolphins W 22–12 vs Patriots 76% +24
8 Ravens W 40–14 vs Jaguars 77% +23
9 Browns W 20–6 @ Giants 79% +21
10 Packers W 24–16 vs Panthers 81% +19
11 Colts W 27–20 vs Texans 83% +17
12 Bengals W 27–17 vs Steelers 84% +16
13 Titans W 46–25 vs Lions 84% +16
14 Cardinals W 33–26 vs Eagles 85% +15
15 Seahawks W 20–15 @ Washington 91% +9
16 Bills W 48–19 @ Broncos 94% +6
17 Broncos L 19–48 vs Bills 6% −6
18 Washington L 15–20 vs Seahawks 9% −9
19 Eagles L 26–33 @ Cardinals 15% −15
20 Lions L 25–46 @ Titans 16% −16
21 Steelers L 17–27 @ Bengals 16% −16
22 Texans L 20–27 @ Colts 17% −17
23 Panthers L 16–24 @ Packers 19% −19
24 Giants L 6–20 vs Browns 21% −21
25 Jaguars L 14–40 @ Ravens 23% −23
26 Patriots L 12–22 @ Dolphins 24% −24
27 Falcons L 27–31 vs Buccaneers 25% −25
28 Saints L 29–32 vs Chiefs 35% −35
29 Vikings L 27–33 vs Bears 57% −57
30 Raiders L 27–30 vs Chargers 68% −68
31 Rams L 20–23 vs Jets 79% −79
32 49ers L 33–41 @ Cowboys 82% −82