Buccaneers 31 
Packers 26 Deserved · Buccaneers win 72% of replays 2020 NFL season · January 24, 2021
Conference championships 2020: who deserved to win
Every winner of Conference championships earned it. The closest call: the Buccaneers won 31–26 and take 72% of replays.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Buccaneers 31 Packers 26 Deserved · Buccaneers win 72% of replays 
Bills 24 
Chiefs 38 Deserved · Chiefs win 85% of replays Conference championships 2020 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 1 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 31–26 @ Packers | 41% | 72% | Deserved |
Luck ranking, conference championships
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buccaneers | W 31–26 @ Packers | 72% | +28 |
| 2 | Chiefs | W 38–24 vs Bills | 85% | +15 |
| 3 | Bills | L 24–38 @ Chiefs | 15% | −15 |
| 4 | Packers | L 26–31 vs Buccaneers | 28% | −28 |