luckadjusted

NFC Championship 2020 · January 24, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Packers, NFC Championship 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Packers 31–26 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:20 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 9, worth 16 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31
Green Bay Packers 26

January 24, 2021 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −3

Luck index +28 Buccaneers lucky · −28 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 7, Packers win 3.

  1. 1 TB 27 GB 0
  2. 2 TB 47 GB 28
  3. 3 TB 37 GB 24
  4. 4 TB 34 GB 24
  5. 5 TB 34 GB 27
  6. 6 TB 23 GB 19
  7. 7 TB 28 GB 26
  8. 8 TB 26 GB 29
  9. 9 TB 30 GB 38
  10. 10 TB 23 GB 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 72% of them, Packers 28%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+23.8%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.7%
Buccaneers by 1–825.2%
Level after regulation3.5%
Packers by 1–815.0%
Packers by 9–167.4%
Packers by 17+4.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 5, without the luck Packers by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Succop, 46 yds made · 71% expected
  • M. Crosby, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 2 for 8 yards, Packers 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q3 7:54 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Ndamukong Suh), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.5 pts
Q3 1:39 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 3 yards +3% GB +0.5 pts
Q4 13:38 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.3 pts
Q4 1:56 Encroachment on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.4 pts
Q4 1:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Kevin King), 15 yards +3% TB +1.5 pts
Q4 1:41 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.1 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +10% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:04 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:15 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +15% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:20 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +16% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:13 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q3 14:10 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedThe Packers fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% TB GB: Touchdown
7 Q4 14:54 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% TB TB: Turnover
8 Q4 11:32 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +10% TB GB: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
  • Raven Greene (GB S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Antonio Brown (TB WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Alex Cappa (TB G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 50% · Packers 50%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 5
Luck in points
5.2 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 72% · Packers 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Conference championships 2020 games · Buccaneers · Packers

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