Week 11 2020 · November 22, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Dolphins at Broncos, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?
The Broncos beat the Dolphins 20–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 9 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Dolphins.
An off day for the Dolphins: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Dolphins were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:10 left): the Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 16 points of win probability to the Broncos.
Final
 Miami Dolphins | 13 |
|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Broncos about even · −13 Dolphins
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Broncos win 9.
- 1 MIA 27 DEN 21
- 2 MIA 18 DEN 20
- 3 MIA 22 DEN 27
- 4 MIA 16 DEN 23
- 5 MIA 14 DEN 25
- 6 MIA 14 DEN 27
- 7 MIA 3 DEN 19
- 8 MIA 6 DEN 24
- 9 MIA 6 DEN 28
- 10 MIA 7 DEN 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Dolphins
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
42 points apart for the Dolphins: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained | −0.10 | +0.10 | worse by 0.20 |
| Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.14 | better by 0.03 |
| Broncos offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.04 | better by 0.07 |
| Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.10 | +0.08 | better by 0.18 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Dolphins win 13% of them, Broncos 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Dolphins by 17+ | 1.0% |
| Dolphins by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Dolphins by 1–8 | 8.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 24.3% |
| Broncos by 17+ | 41.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. McManus, 29 yds made · 98% expected
- J. Sanders, 41 yds made · 86% expected
- B. McManus, 47 yds made · 79% expected
- J. Sanders, 53 yds made · 66% expected
Penalties: Dolphins 5 for 50 yards, Broncos 8 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:25 | Defensive Holding on the Broncos, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +13% MIA +4.2 pts |
| Q1 5:39 | False Start on the Broncos (Troy Fumagalli), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:21 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.3 pts |
| Q2 2:34 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Broncos (Michael Ojemudia), 10 yards | +4% MIA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 7:28 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards | +2% MIA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 3:18 | Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Jason Strowbridge), 15 yards | +6% DEN +2.4 pts |
| Q3 0:10 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 15 yards | +3% MIA +1.9 pts |
| Q3 0:04 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% DEN +1.9 pts |
| Q4 13:42 | False Start on the Dolphins (Mike Gesicki), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEN +0.2 pts |
| Q4 5:47 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Andrew Van Ginkel), 10 yards | +2% DEN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 4:48 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos (Bradley Chubb), 15 yards | +4% MIA +1.2 pts |
| Q4 3:26 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards | +1% DEN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 0:04 | Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA 0.0 pts |
Dolphins penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Broncos’ chance of winning
As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:15 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +12% MIA | DEN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:25 | Defensive Holding on the Broncos, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +13% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:43 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +9% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 3:23 | The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +8% DEN | MIA: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 1:43 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +11% DEN | DEN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 9:30 | The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +9% MIA | DEN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 2:50 | The Dolphins converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +12% MIA | MIA: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 1:10 | The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +16% DEN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Elijah Wilkinson (DEN T), out · 0.6 pts
- Shelby Harris (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Mike Purcell (DEN DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Christian Wilkins (MIA DT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Myles Gaskin (MIA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Dolphins 4% · Broncos 96%
- Final margin
- Broncos by 7
- Luck in points
- 6.6 for the Dolphins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Broncos by 13.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Dolphins 13% · Broncos 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · 
Dolphins · 
Broncos
More from Week 11 2020
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 28–21 · replay 43% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints NO 24–9 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bengals at Washington WAS 20–9 · replay 88% for the winner
- Lions at Panthers CAR 20–0 · replay 87% for the winner
- Patriots at Texans HOU 27–20 · replay 56% for the winner
- Eagles at Browns CLE 22–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Steelers at Jaguars PIT 27–3 · replay 95% for the winner
- Titans at Ravens TEN 30–24 · replay 75% for the winner
- Jets at Chargers LAC 34–28 · replay 75% for the winner
- Cowboys at Vikings DAL 31–28 · replay 56% for the winner
- Packers at Colts IND 34–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 35–31 · replay 43% for the winner
- Rams at Buccaneers LA 27–24 · replay 64% for the winner