luckadjusted

Week 11 2020 · November 22, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chiefs at Raiders, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Raiders 35–31, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 4 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:29 left): Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 6 yards, wiping out the play, worth 45 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 35
Las Vegas Raiders 31

November 22, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −7.5

Luck index +57 Chiefs lucky · −57 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 4, Raiders win 6.

  1. 1 KC 38 LV 20
  2. 2 KC 34 LV 24
  3. 3 KC 31 LV 24
  4. 4 KC 24 LV 21
  5. 5 KC 27 LV 29
  6. 6 KC 30 LV 34
  7. 7 KC 23 LV 30
  8. 8 KC 27 LV 38
  9. 9 KC 17 LV 34
  10. 10 KC 14 LV 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 43% of them, Raiders 57%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+7.2%
Chiefs by 9–1612.0%
Chiefs by 1–823.5%
Level after regulation6.9%
Raiders by 1–825.2%
Raiders by 9–1614.6%
Raiders by 17+10.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Chiefs by 4, without the luck Chiefs by 7.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Chiefs 10 for 89 yards, Raiders 8 for 72 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:25 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Willie Gay Jr.), 10 yards +2% LV +1.0 pts
Q2 13:31 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Maliek Collins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.4 pts
Q2 11:47 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chiefs, 10 yards +2% LV +1.1 pts
Q2 11:42 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Arden Key), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +0.3 pts
Q2 11:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Damon Arnette), 18 yards +5% KC +2.0 pts
Q2 4:46 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Raiders, 15 yards +5% KC +1.4 pts
Q2 4:03 Face Mask on the Chiefs (Demarcus Robinson), 15 yards +5% LV +1.5 pts
Q2 3:33 False Start on the Chiefs (Byron Pringle), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.2 pts
Q2 0:52 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Damon Arnette), 5 yards +3% KC +0.9 pts
Q2 0:43 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Isaiah Johnson), 5 yards +2% KC +0.2 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Chiefs (Anthony Sherman), 7 yards +1% LV +0.6 pts
Q4 13:35 False Start on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.4 pts
Q4 11:46 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (L'Jarius Sneed), 9 yards +5% LV +0.8 pts
Q4 10:59 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Johnathan Abram), 15 yards +6% KC +1.1 pts
Q4 2:29 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 6 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +45% LV +1.8 pts
Q4 2:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Bashaud Breeland), 22 yards +18% LV +2.4 pts
Q4 2:10 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Chiefs (Tyrann Mathieu), 0 yards +6% LV +0.3 pts
Q4 2:05 False Start on the Raiders (Jason Witten), 4 yards · pre-snap +5% KC +0.8 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 4:46 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Raiders, 15 yardsJudgment calls +17% KC LV: Field goal
2 Q3 5:13 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% LV LV: Touchdown
3 Q3 0:53 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +10% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:36 The Chiefs converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +12% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:29 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 6 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 14 flags in 1202 snaps before, position avg 1 per 262 +45% LV LV: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Bashaud Breeland), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 1421 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +18% LV LV: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:53 The Raiders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +11% LV LV: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:14 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +10% KC KC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamarcus Joyner (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Clelin Ferrell (LV DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cory Littleton (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Lamarcus Joyner (LV S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sam Young (LV T), out · 0.2 pts
  • Mitchell Schwartz (KC T), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Sammy Watkins (KC WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Kelechi Osemele (KC G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 94% · Raiders 6%

Final margin
Chiefs by 4
Luck in points
3.4 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 43% · Raiders 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · Chiefs · Raiders

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