luckadjusted

Week 11 2020 · November 22, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Chargers, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Jets 34–28 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:24 left): Return touchdown by the Chargers, worth 22 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

New York Jets 28
Los Angeles Chargers 34

November 22, 2020 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −10

Luck index +25 Chargers lucky · −25 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 3, Chargers win 7.

  1. 1 NYJ 33 LAC 16
  2. 2 NYJ 16 LAC 7
  3. 3 NYJ 27 LAC 24
  4. 4 NYJ 22 LAC 24
  5. 5 NYJ 23 LAC 27
  6. 6 NYJ 23 LAC 31
  7. 7 NYJ 14 LAC 26
  8. 8 NYJ 6 LAC 22
  9. 9 NYJ 21 LAC 41
  10. 10 NYJ 13 LAC 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 25% of them, Chargers 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+3.5%
Jets by 9–167.3%
Jets by 1–813.6%
Level after regulation3.7%
Chargers by 1–825.1%
Chargers by 9–1620.5%
Chargers by 17+26.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 6, without the luck Chargers by 5.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • M. Badgley, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 8 for 88 yards, Chargers 9 for 78 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Bryce Hall), 8 yards +5% LAC +1.6 pts
Q1 2:07 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.8 pts
Q2 13:30 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Melvin Ingram), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q2 11:11 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 4 yards +2% LAC +0.7 pts
Q2 10:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Justin Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q2 7:15 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Donald Parham), 7 yards, wiping out the play +3% NYJ +2.1 pts
Q2 0:48 Illegal Contact on the Jets, 5 yards +1% LAC +0.6 pts
Q2 0:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets, 37 yards +1% LAC +2.5 pts
Q3 12:34 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.7 pts
Q3 4:15 Illegal Contact on the Chargers (Casey Hayward), 5 yards 0% NYJ +1.7 pts
Q3 4:09 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% LAC +1.5 pts
Q3 1:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 19 yards +2% NYJ +1.8 pts
Q3 0:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Denzel Perryman), 1 yard +1% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q4 9:02 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Jordan Jenkins), 14 yards +1% LAC +1.9 pts
Q4 4:52 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 11 yards +1% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q4 3:00 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +1% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q4 2:26 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 15 yards, wiping out the play +9% NYJ +2.2 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:59 The Chargers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% LAC LAC: Punt
2 Q1 11:11 Blocked punt by the JetsSpecial teams +10% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Bryce Hall), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 46 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +5% LAC LAC: Turnover
4 Q1 6:54 The Chargers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% LAC LAC: Turnover
5 Q1 3:33 The Chargers fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYJ LAC: Opp touchdown
6 Q1 3:24 Return touchdown by the ChargersSpecial teams +22% LAC LAC: Opp touchdown
7 Q2 14:26 The Chargers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +12% LAC LAC: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:26 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1173 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +9% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyzir White (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Groy (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Chris Hogan (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brian Poole (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Blessuan Austin (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bradley McDougald (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 20% · Chargers 80%

Final margin
Chargers by 6
Luck in points
0.2 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 5.8
Replay with same day's form
Jets 25% · Chargers 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · Jets · Chargers

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