luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · November 19, 2020–November 23

Week 11 2020: who deserved to win

3 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Colts beat the Packers 34–31 in a game they win 30% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 11 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Cowboys 31–28 @ Vikings 30% 56% Coin flip
Titans 30–24 @ Ravens 33% 75% Deserved
Rams 27–24 @ Buccaneers 38% 64% Deserved
Broncos 20–13 vs Dolphins 38% 87% Deserved
Panthers 20–0 vs Lions 41% 87% Deserved
Texans 27–20 vs Patriots 43% 56% Coin flip

Week 11 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Colts W 34–31 vs Packers 30% +70
2 Chiefs W 35–31 @ Raiders 43% +57
3 Seahawks W 28–21 vs Cardinals 43% +57
4 Cowboys W 31–28 @ Vikings 56% +44
5 Texans W 27–20 vs Patriots 56% +44
6 Rams W 27–24 @ Buccaneers 64% +36
7 Browns W 22–17 vs Eagles 71% +29
8 Chargers W 34–28 vs Jets 75% +25
9 Titans W 30–24 @ Ravens 75% +25
10 Panthers W 20–0 vs Lions 87% +13
11 Broncos W 20–13 vs Dolphins 87% +13
12 Washington W 20–9 vs Bengals 88% +12
13 Saints W 24–9 vs Falcons 92% +8
14 Steelers W 27–3 @ Jaguars 95% +5
15 Jaguars L 3–27 vs Steelers 5% −5
16 Falcons L 9–24 @ Saints 8% −8
17 Bengals L 9–20 @ Washington 12% −12
18 Dolphins L 13–20 @ Broncos 13% −13
19 Lions L 0–20 @ Panthers 13% −13
20 Ravens L 24–30 vs Titans 25% −25
21 Jets L 28–34 @ Chargers 25% −25
22 Eagles L 17–22 @ Browns 29% −29
23 Buccaneers L 24–27 vs Rams 36% −36
24 Patriots L 20–27 @ Texans 44% −44
25 Vikings L 28–31 vs Cowboys 44% −44
26 Cardinals L 21–28 @ Seahawks 57% −57
27 Raiders L 31–35 vs Chiefs 57% −57
28 Packers L 31–34 @ Colts 70% −70