luckadjusted

Week 11 2020 · November 19, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Seahawks, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 28–21, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 4 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:35 left): Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 13 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 21
Seattle Seahawks 28

November 19, 2020 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −3

Luck index +57 Seahawks lucky · −57 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 6, Seahawks win 4.

  1. 1 ARI 32 SEA 6
  2. 2 ARI 27 SEA 10
  3. 3 ARI 30 SEA 17
  4. 4 ARI 24 SEA 17
  5. 5 ARI 20 SEA 16
  6. 6 ARI 31 SEA 29
  7. 7 ARI 29 SEA 31
  8. 8 ARI 25 SEA 31
  9. 9 ARI 23 SEA 35
  10. 10 ARI 6 SEA 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 57% of them, Seahawks 43%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+14.2%
Cardinals by 9–1616.1%
Cardinals by 1–826.2%
Level after regulation3.0%
Seahawks by 1–820.3%
Seahawks by 9–1612.5%
Seahawks by 17+7.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Seahawks by 7, without the luck Seahawks by 8.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 41 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 10 for 115 yards, Seahawks 8 for 79 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:50 False Start on the Cardinals (Dan Arnold), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.6 pts
Q1 2:35 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% ARI +5.3 pts
Q1 1:52 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks, 15 yards +4% ARI +1.4 pts
Q2 7:13 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +5% SEA +1.4 pts
Q2 5:27 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.9 pts
Q2 1:17 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.3 pts
Q2 1:17 False Start on the Seahawks, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.2 pts
Q2 0:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Patrick Peterson), 46 yards +9% SEA +2.6 pts
Q3 13:52 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 13:41 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Quandre Diggs), 15 yards +4% ARI +3.0 pts
Q3 11:40 Horse Collar Tackle on the Seahawks (Bobby Wagner), 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% ARI +2.3 pts
Q3 8:32 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% ARI +1.5 pts
Q3 6:31 Taunting on the Cardinals (Dre Kirkpatrick), 15 yards +5% SEA +1.6 pts
Q3 3:24 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Larry Fitzgerald), 10 yards +2% SEA +1.0 pts
Q3 2:12 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.4 pts
Q4 11:48 Illegal Shift on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% ARI +1.2 pts
Q4 9:23 Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Kyler Murray), 12 yards +4% SEA +0.9 pts
Q4 9:18 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (J.R. Sweezy), 2 yards, wiping out the play +12% SEA +0.8 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:45 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +6% ARI SEA: Punt
2 Q1 2:35 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:03 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% ARI ARI: Punt
4 Q2 0:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Patrick Peterson), 46 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1444 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +9% SEA SEA: Field goal
5 Q3 6:31 Taunting on the Cardinals (Dre Kirkpatrick), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 751 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +5% SEA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:48 Illegal Shift on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +6% ARI ARI: Safety
7 Q4 9:18 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (J.R. Sweezy), 2 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1485 snaps before, position avg 1 per 210 +12% SEA SEA: Field goal
8 Q4 0:38 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shaquill Griffin (SEA CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quinton Dunbar (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Chris Carson (SEA RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Simmons (SEA G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (SEA G/C), out · 0.2 pts
  • Chandler Jones (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Corey Peters (ARI DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrell Daniels (ARI TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Murray (ARI OL), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 20% · Seahawks 80%

Final margin
Seahawks by 7
Luck in points
1.2 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 8.2
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 57% · Seahawks 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · Cardinals · Seahawks

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