Week 4 2020 · October 4, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Browns at Cowboys, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?
The Browns beat the Cowboys 49–38, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Browns win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Browns.
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:13 left): the Cowboys converted 4th & 2, worth 11 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Final
 Cleveland Browns | 49 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +60 Browns lucky · −60 Cowboys
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Browns win 4, Cowboys win 6.
- 1 CLE 51 DAL 28
- 2 CLE 20 DAL 7
- 3 CLE 31 DAL 24
- 4 CLE 34 DAL 31
- 5 CLE 48 DAL 50
- 6 CLE 34 DAL 40
- 7 CLE 31 DAL 41
- 8 CLE 39 DAL 55
- 9 CLE 19 DAL 39
- 10 CLE 18 DAL 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Browns win 40% of them, Cowboys 60%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Browns by 17+ | 9.5% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 12.4% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 18.1% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 22.1% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 16.3% |
| Cowboys by 17+ | 19.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Parkey, 37 yds made · 92% expected
- C. Parkey, 44 yds made · 84% expected
Penalties: Browns 5 for 40 yards, Cowboys 6 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:27 | Offensive Holding on the Browns (Donovan Peoples-Jones), 10 yards | +3% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 1:08 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | +2% DAL +1.0 pts |
| Q1 0:59 | Face Mask on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 15 yards | +3% CLE +1.4 pts |
| Q2 4:26 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLE +0.9 pts |
| Q3 13:29 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Browns (Odell Beckham Jr.), 10 yards | 0% CLE +0.5 pts |
| Q3 12:30 | Face Mask on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 15 yards | +1% CLE +1.8 pts |
| Q3 4:02 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys, 15 yards | 0% CLE +1.8 pts |
| Q4 8:34 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys, 10 yards | 0% CLE +0.9 pts |
| Q4 8:34 | Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.4 pts |
| Q4 7:52 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Olivier Vernon), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:25 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLE +0.5 pts |
Browns penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Cowboys’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:43 | The Browns converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +5% CLE | CLE: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 6:25 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% DAL | CLE: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 2:13 | The Cowboys converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +11% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 13:38 | The Browns converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 11:23 | The Cowboys fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% CLE | DAL: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 9:22 | The Cowboys fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% CLE | DAL: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 1:11 | The Browns converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +4% CLE | CLE: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 3:42 | The Cowboys’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +5% DAL | DAL: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- La'el Collins (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Chidobe Awuzie (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Sean Lee (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Browns 75% · Cowboys 25%
- Final margin
- Browns by 11
- Luck in points
- 8.7 for the Browns
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Browns by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Browns 40% · Cowboys 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · 
Browns · 
Cowboys
More from Week 4 2020
- Broncos at Jets DEN 37–28 · replay 88% for the winner
- Cardinals at Panthers CAR 31–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Ravens at Washington BAL 31–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Jaguars at Bengals CIN 33–25 · replay 67% for the winner
- Chargers at Buccaneers TB 38–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Vikings at Texans MIN 31–23 · replay 88% for the winner
- Saints at Lions NO 35–29 · replay 64% for the winner
- Seahawks at Dolphins SEA 31–23 · replay 82% for the winner
- Giants at Rams LA 17–9 · replay 68% for the winner
- Bills at Raiders BUF 30–23 · replay 45% for the winner
- Colts at Bears IND 19–11 · replay 60% for the winner
- Eagles at 49ers PHI 25–20 · replay 13% for the winner
- Patriots at Chiefs KC 26–10 · replay 83% for the winner
- Falcons at Packers GB 30–16 · replay 72% for the winner