luckadjusted

Week 4 2020 · October 4, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Washington, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat Washington 31–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 86% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:05 left): the Ravens converted 3rd & 4, worth 10 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 31
Washington Football Team 17

October 4, 2020 · FedExField · Closing line: Ravens −14.5

Luck index +5 Ravens about even · −5 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 9, Washington win 1.

  1. 1 BAL 35 WAS 0
  2. 2 BAL 44 WAS 17
  3. 3 BAL 40 WAS 17
  4. 4 BAL 35 WAS 17
  5. 5 BAL 30 WAS 14
  6. 6 BAL 30 WAS 17
  7. 7 BAL 23 WAS 13
  8. 8 BAL 37 WAS 31
  9. 9 BAL 27 WAS 24
  10. 10 BAL 17 WAS 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 95% of them, Washington 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+60.9%
Ravens by 9–1620.0%
Ravens by 1–813.8%
Level after regulation0.7%
Washington by 1–83.3%
Washington by 9–161.1%
Washington by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.3 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 14, without the luck Ravens by 8.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 54 yds missed · 64% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 5 for 30 yards, Washington 2 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:26 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% WAS +0.5 pts
Q1 5:11 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 6:32 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.7 pts
Q4 13:52 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.5 pts
Q4 9:27 Horse Collar Tackle on Washington (Montez Sweat), 15 yards 0% BAL +1.7 pts
Q4 3:42 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 5 yards 0% WAS +0.6 pts
Q4 1:59 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% WAS +1.4 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:20 Washington converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +7% WAS WAS: Punt
2 Q1 10:26 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% BAL WAS: Punt
3 Q1 3:03 Washington fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BAL WAS: Punt
4 Q2 11:31 D. Hopkins missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 3 of 6 from 45+ before +7% BAL WAS: Touchdown
5 Q2 10:05 The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +10% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:25 Washington converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q2 3:09 The Ravens converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:57 The Ravens converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chase Young (WAS DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Steven Sims (WAS WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Matthew Ioannidis (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Derek Wolfe (BAL DE), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 97% · Washington 3%

Final margin
Ravens by 14
Luck in points
5.3 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 95% · Washington 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · Ravens · Washington

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