luckadjusted

Week 4 2020 · October 4, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Buccaneers, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Chargers 38–31 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:12 left): the Chargers converted 3rd & 7, worth 30 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38

October 4, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −7.5

Luck index +28 Buccaneers lucky · −28 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 3, Buccaneers win 7.

  1. 1 LAC 33 TB 15
  2. 2 LAC 30 TB 22
  3. 3 LAC 20 TB 17
  4. 4 LAC 31 TB 34
  5. 5 LAC 17 TB 23
  6. 6 LAC 21 TB 29
  7. 7 LAC 21 TB 33
  8. 8 LAC 16 TB 32
  9. 9 LAC 16 TB 37
  10. 10 LAC 13 TB 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 28% of them, Buccaneers 72%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+4.7%
Chargers by 9–167.8%
Chargers by 1–814.7%
Level after regulation2.9%
Buccaneers by 1–823.5%
Buccaneers by 9–1619.1%
Buccaneers by 17+27.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 7, without the luck Buccaneers by 4.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 44 yds missed · 80% expected
  • M. Badgley, 53 yds made · 65% expected
  • M. Badgley, 47 yds missed · 76% expected
  • R. Succop, 26 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 7 for 60 yards, Buccaneers 8 for 90 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:07 False Start on the Buccaneers (Rob Gronkowski), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.7 pts
Q1 7:32 Illegal Contact on the Chargers (Kyzir White), 5 yards +2% TB +1.1 pts
Q1 3:55 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +2% LAC +1.2 pts
Q1 2:10 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chargers, 10 yards +2% TB +0.9 pts
Q1 0:17 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 2 yards 0% TB +0.2 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Chargers, 3 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.3 pts
Q2 14:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Jordan Whitehead), 15 yards +5% LAC +1.9 pts
Q2 10:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 20 yards +6% LAC +1.9 pts
Q2 2:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chargers, 10 yards +1% TB +0.7 pts
Q2 1:13 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Kyzir White), 15 yards +2% TB +2.1 pts
Q2 1:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 15 yards +1% LAC +1.3 pts
Q3 3:34 Chop Block on the Chargers (Justin Jackson), 15 yards, wiping out the play +7% TB +2.7 pts
Q4 13:04 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yards +4% LAC +0.8 pts
Q4 11:23 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.9 pts
Q4 2:35 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Buccaneers (Devin White), 10 yards +3% LAC +1.0 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:08 Return touchdown by the ChargersSpecial teams +29% LAC LAC: Opp touchdown
2 Q2 14:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Jordan Whitehead), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1273 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +5% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q2 10:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 1234 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q2 9:58 The Chargers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:34 Chop Block on the Chargers (Justin Jackson), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 159 snaps before, position avg 1 per 765 +7% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:44 M. Badgley missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before +7% TB LAC: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:12 The Chargers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +30% LAC LAC: Touchdown
8 Q4 6:09 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% TB TB: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Melvin Ingram (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Justin Jones (LAC DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Drue Tranquill (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 15% · Buccaneers 85%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 7
Luck in points
2.2 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 28% · Buccaneers 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · Chargers · Buccaneers

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