luckadjusted

Week 4 2020 · October 4, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Raiders, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Raiders 30–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bills win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Bills.

Before kickoff the Bills were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:41 left): D. Carlson made 25-yard field goal, worth 14 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 30
Las Vegas Raiders 23

October 4, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Bills −3

Luck index +55 Bills lucky · −55 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 4, Raiders win 6.

  1. 1 BUF 29 LV 10
  2. 2 BUF 38 LV 26
  3. 3 BUF 17 LV 10
  4. 4 BUF 26 LV 24
  5. 5 BUF 21 LV 23
  6. 6 BUF 24 LV 29
  7. 7 BUF 21 LV 28
  8. 8 BUF 9 LV 20
  9. 9 BUF 17 LV 31
  10. 10 BUF 10 LV 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 45% of them, Raiders 55%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+8.3%
Bills by 9–1613.4%
Bills by 1–822.2%
Level after regulation6.5%
Raiders by 1–822.3%
Raiders by 9–1616.0%
Raiders by 17+11.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 7, without the luck Bills by 5.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 54 yds made · 65% expected
  • D. Carlson, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • T. Bass, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 5 for 81 yards, Raiders 7 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:38 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.8 pts
Q1 5:02 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards +2% LV +0.8 pts
Q1 4:33 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Johnathan Hankins), 15 yards +4% BUF +1.4 pts
Q2 13:16 Illegal Formation on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +13% BUF +4.6 pts
Q2 8:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Arden Key), 15 yards +5% BUF +1.8 pts
Q3 13:11 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% BUF +1.3 pts
Q3 5:43 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +5% LV +1.4 pts
Q4 13:34 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders, 10 yards +6% BUF +1.2 pts
Q4 9:05 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards 0% LV +1.1 pts
Q4 3:47 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders, 10 yards +1% BUF +0.9 pts
Q4 3:47 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.3 pts
Q4 3:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Jordan Poyer), 46 yards +1% LV +3.6 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:17 The Bills converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:44 The Bills converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:41 The Bills converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% BUF BUF: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:16 Illegal Formation on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +13% BUF BUF: Field goal
5 Q2 4:17 T. Bass made 34-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him +8% LV BUF: End of half
6 Q3 8:41 D. Carlson made 25-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +14% BUF LV: Punt
7 Q3 6:16 The Bills converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +8% BUF BUF: Punt
8 Q3 3:19 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% BUF LV: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyrell Williams (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Henry Ruggs III (LV WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Richie Incognito (LV G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Trent Brown (LV T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Damon Arnette (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bryan Edwards (LV WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jon Feliciano (BUF G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 85% · Raiders 15%

Final margin
Bills by 7
Luck in points
1.7 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Bills 45% · Raiders 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · Bills · Raiders

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