luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · October 1, 2020–October 5

Week 4 2020: who deserved to win

3 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Eagles beat the 49ers 25–20 in a game they win 13% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 4 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Eagles 25–20 @ 49ers 26% 13% Lucky
Browns 49–38 @ Cowboys 40% 40% Coin flip
Vikings 31–23 @ Texans 40% 88% Deserved
Panthers 31–21 vs Cardinals 41% 80% Deserved
Broncos 37–28 @ Jets 47% 88% Deserved

Week 4 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Eagles W 25–20 @ 49ers 13% +87
2 Browns W 49–38 @ Cowboys 40% +60
3 Bills W 30–23 @ Raiders 45% +55
4 Colts W 19–11 @ Bears 60% +40
5 Saints W 35–29 @ Lions 64% +36
6 Bengals W 33–25 vs Jaguars 67% +33
7 Rams W 17–9 vs Giants 68% +32
8 Packers W 30–16 vs Falcons 72% +28
9 Buccaneers W 38–31 vs Chargers 72% +28
10 Panthers W 31–21 vs Cardinals 80% +20
11 Seahawks W 31–23 @ Dolphins 82% +18
12 Chiefs W 26–10 vs Patriots 83% +17
13 Broncos W 37–28 @ Jets 88% +12
14 Vikings W 31–23 @ Texans 88% +12
15 Ravens W 31–17 @ Washington 95% +5
16 Washington L 17–31 vs Ravens 5% −5
17 Texans L 23–31 vs Vikings 12% −12
18 Jets L 28–37 vs Broncos 12% −12
19 Patriots L 10–26 @ Chiefs 17% −17
20 Dolphins L 23–31 vs Seahawks 18% −18
21 Cardinals L 21–31 @ Panthers 20% −20
22 Chargers L 31–38 @ Buccaneers 28% −28
23 Falcons L 16–30 @ Packers 28% −28
24 Giants L 9–17 @ Rams 32% −32
25 Jaguars L 25–33 @ Bengals 33% −33
26 Lions L 29–35 vs Saints 36% −36
27 Bears L 11–19 vs Colts 40% −40
28 Raiders L 23–30 vs Bills 55% −55
29 Cowboys L 38–49 vs Browns 60% −60
30 49ers L 20–25 vs Eagles 87% −87