Week 16 2020 · December 27, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Eagles at Cowboys, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys beat the Eagles 37–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Eagles.
An off day for the Eagles: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Eagles were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:56 left): G. Zuerlein made 20-yard field goal, worth 11 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 17 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Cowboys about even · −14 Eagles
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 1, Cowboys win 9.
- 1 PHI 39 DAL 30
- 2 PHI 31 DAL 33
- 3 PHI 39 DAL 44
- 4 PHI 32 DAL 40
- 5 PHI 30 DAL 43
- 6 PHI 13 DAL 29
- 7 PHI 23 DAL 41
- 8 PHI 21 DAL 43
- 9 PHI 10 DAL 37
- 10 PHI 17 DAL 54
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Eagles
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.04 | worse by 0.02 |
| Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.31 | +0.12 | worse by 0.19 |
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | +0.31 | +0.12 | better by 0.19 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.15 | better by 0.13 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 14% of them, Cowboys 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 20.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 1.4% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 3.8% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 8.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 16.8% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 19.9% |
| Cowboys by 17+ | 48.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Zuerlein, 35 yds made · 93% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 20 yds made · 98% expected
- J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 91% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 21 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Eagles 12 for 115 yards, Cowboys 5 for 73 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 5 yards | 0% PHI +0.3 pts |
| Q1 13:43 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 15 yards | +5% PHI +1.7 pts |
| Q1 7:50 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles, 26 yards | +7% DAL +2.3 pts |
| Q2 9:31 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:03 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.1 pts |
| Q3 9:41 | Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Malik Jackson), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q3 1:59 | Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:34 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +2% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 0:09 | False Start on the Eagles (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:54 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 7:38 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:38 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Aldon Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.7 pts |
| Q4 4:13 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 43 yards | +4% PHI +3.1 pts |
| Q4 2:51 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles, 34 yards | 0% DAL +2.8 pts |
| Q4 2:51 | Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI +0.2 pts |
| Q4 2:45 | Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Genard Avery), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI +0.3 pts |
| Q4 1:13 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.3 pts |
Eagles penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Cowboys’ chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:50 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles, 26 yardsJudgment calls | +7% DAL | DAL: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 1:37 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 9:31 | The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedFalse Start on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% DAL | PHI: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 5:56 | G. Zuerlein made 20-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him | +11% PHI | DAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 4:58 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 3:51 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +5% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 2:18 | The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +6% DAL | PHI: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 12:35 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +10% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Cameron Erving (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Xavier Woods (DAL S), out · 0.5 pts
- Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Rashard Robinson (DAL CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Cameron Erving (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Antwaun Woods (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Chris Jones (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Lane Johnson (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Jason Peters (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Rodney McLeod (PHI S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out · 0.3 pts
- Kevon Seymour (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Duke Riley (PHI LB), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 0% · Cowboys 100%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 20
- Luck in points
- 0.3 for the Cowboys
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 19.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 14% · Cowboys 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · 
Eagles · 
Cowboys
More from Week 16 2020
- Vikings at Saints NO 52–33 · replay 96% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Lions TB 47–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- 49ers at Cardinals SF 20–12 · replay 95% for the winner
- Dolphins at Raiders MIA 26–25 · replay 9% for the winner
- Falcons at Chiefs KC 17–14 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bears at Jaguars CHI 41–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Bengals at Texans CIN 37–31 · replay 37% for the winner
- Browns at Jets NYJ 23–16 · replay 61% for the winner
- Colts at Steelers PIT 28–24 · replay 53% for the winner
- Giants at Ravens BAL 27–13 · replay 92% for the winner
- Panthers at Washington CAR 20–13 · replay 54% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers LAC 19–16 · replay 27% for the winner
- Rams at Seahawks SEA 20–9 · replay 61% for the winner
- Titans at Packers GB 40–14 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bills at Patriots BUF 38–9 · replay 93% for the winner