luckadjusted

Week 16 2020 · December 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Texans, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Texans 37–31, but the Texans played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Texans were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:47 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Drew Sample), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 20 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 37
Houston Texans 31

December 27, 2020 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −7.5

Luck index +63 Bengals very lucky · −63 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 4, Texans win 6.

  1. 1 CIN 37 HOU 16
  2. 2 CIN 37 HOU 27
  3. 3 CIN 34 HOU 29
  4. 4 CIN 20 HOU 17
  5. 5 CIN 33 HOU 35
  6. 6 CIN 38 HOU 43
  7. 7 CIN 28 HOU 37
  8. 8 CIN 17 HOU 31
  9. 9 CIN 14 HOU 34
  10. 10 CIN 14 HOU 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 37% of them, Texans 63%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+6.2%
Bengals by 9–1610.4%
Bengals by 1–819.1%
Level after regulation2.4%
Texans by 1–823.8%
Texans by 9–1619.7%
Texans by 17+18.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.6 points to the Texans: the final margin was Bengals by 6, without the luck Bengals by 11.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • A. Seibert, 49 yds missed · 73% expected
  • A. Seibert, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • A. Seibert, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • A. Seibert, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 5 for 35 yards, Texans 6 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Vernon Hargreaves III), 7 yards +4% CIN +1.6 pts
Q2 15:00 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Bengals, 5 yards +1% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 8:50 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Brandin Cooks), 10 yards +3% CIN +1.2 pts
Q3 7:47 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Drew Sample), 10 yards, wiping out the play +20% HOU +5.5 pts
Q3 2:50 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.6 pts
Q3 0:55 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Markus Bailey), 10 yards +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 13:34 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (J.J. Watt), 4 yards · pre-snap +8% CIN +1.1 pts
Q4 10:57 Illegal Formation on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% HOU +1.0 pts
Q4 10:30 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (LeShaun Sims), 5 yards 0% HOU +0.5 pts
Q4 9:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans, 15 yards +7% CIN +1.4 pts
Q4 1:20 Defensive Holding on the Texans, 5 yards +1% CIN +0.2 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:37 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +8% HOU CIN: Missed field goal
2 Q3 7:47 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Drew Sample), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1040 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +20% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q3 7:20 The Bengals converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q3 3:27 The Texans converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +12% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q3 0:58 The Texans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +13% HOU HOU: Touchdown
6 Q4 13:34 The Bengals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (J.J. Watt), 4 yardsPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 1445 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +18% CIN CIN: Field goal
7 Q4 10:39 A. Seibert made 48-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 5 of 11 from 45+ before +15% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:35 The Texans fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% CIN HOU: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Will Fuller (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Randall Cobb (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Whitney Mercilus (HOU OLB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Justin Reid (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Bradley Roby (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Whitney Mercilus (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Eric Murray (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU G/T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Duke Johnson (HOU RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • P.J. Hall (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by b.allen · 4.5 pts
  • Tyler Boyd (CIN WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Jonah Williams (CIN OT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Randy Bullock (CIN K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Redmond (CIN G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 89% · Texans 11%

Final margin
Bengals by 6
Luck in points
5.6 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 11.6
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 37% · Texans 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · Bengals · Texans

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