Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Falcons at Vikings, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?
The Falcons stole one. They beat the Vikings 40–23, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Falcons.
The Falcons won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Vikings were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:08 left): the Falcons converted 3rd & 11, worth 9 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 40 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +90 Falcons very lucky · −90 Vikings
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 1, Vikings win 9.
- 1 ATL 34 MIN 27
- 2 ATL 20 MIN 23
- 3 ATL 22 MIN 27
- 4 ATL 27 MIN 35
- 5 ATL 30 MIN 41
- 6 ATL 23 MIN 36
- 7 ATL 16 MIN 31
- 8 ATL 20 MIN 40
- 9 ATL 23 MIN 47
- 10 ATL 20 MIN 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Falcons won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
50 points apart for the Falcons: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | +0.30 | +0.10 | better by 0.20 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.20 | +0.17 | better by 0.38 |
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | −0.20 | +0.14 | worse by 0.34 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.30 | +0.08 | worse by 0.22 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 10% of them, Vikings 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 2.4% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 6.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 16.0% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 21.3% |
| Vikings by 17+ | 51.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Y. Koo, 50 yds made · 76% expected
- Y. Koo, 21 yds made · 99% expected
- Y. Koo, 47 yds made · 81% expected
- Y. Koo, 43 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Falcons 5 for 25 yards, Vikings 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:16 | False Start on the Falcons (Todd Gurley), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +1.1 pts |
| Q2 9:49 | Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Vikings (Jeff Gladney), 15 yards | +3% ATL +1.8 pts |
| Q2 1:20 | Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Charles Harris), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.1 pts |
| Q3 12:12 | Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Ifeadi Odenigbo), 5 yards | 0% ATL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 10:32 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Falcons (Dante Fowler), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% ATL +0.5 pts |
| Q3 9:37 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards | 0% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 11:29 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 6:40 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Falcons (Kendall Sheffield), 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ATL +0.3 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Vikings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:08 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +9% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:45 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +3% ATL | MIN: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 5:36 | The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +4% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 1:53 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +3% ATL | MIN: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 11:48 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +6% ATL | MIN: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 11:44 | The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +5% ATL | MIN: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 9:49 | Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Vikings (Jeff Gladney), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 293 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 | +3% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 5:51 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% ATL | MIN: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Holton Hill (MIN CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Anthony Barr (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Dalvin Cook (MIN RB), out · 0.4 pts
- Pat Elflein (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Dru Samia (MIN G), out · 0.2 pts
- Darqueze Dennard (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Damontae Kazee (ATL SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Damontae Kazee (ATL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- John Cominsky (ATL DE), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 91% · Vikings 9%
- Final margin
- Falcons by 17
- Luck in points
- 11.8 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Falcons by 5.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 10% · Vikings 90% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · 
Falcons · 
Vikings
More from Week 6 2020
- Ravens at Eagles BAL 30–28 · replay 65% for the winner
- Bears at Panthers CHI 23–16 · replay 21% for the winner
- Bengals at Colts IND 31–27 · replay 92% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 38–7 · replay 84% for the winner
- Broncos at Patriots DEN 18–12 · replay 51% for the winner
- Lions at Jaguars DET 34–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Texans at Titans TEN 42–36 · replay 55% for the winner
- Washington at Giants NYG 20–19 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 24–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Packers at Buccaneers TB 38–10 · replay 83% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers SF 24–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bills KC 26–17 · replay 52% for the winner
- Cardinals at Cowboys ARI 38–10 · replay 85% for the winner