luckadjusted

Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Jaguars, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Jaguars 34–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 8 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Lions were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:05 left): Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (K'Lavon Chaisson), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 34
Jacksonville Jaguars 16

October 18, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Lions −3

Luck index +18 Lions about even · −18 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 8, Jaguars win 2.

  1. 1 DET 35 JAX 7
  2. 2 DET 33 JAX 14
  3. 3 DET 33 JAX 17
  4. 4 DET 30 JAX 17
  5. 5 DET 24 JAX 13
  6. 6 DET 28 JAX 21
  7. 7 DET 21 JAX 17
  8. 8 DET 30 JAX 28
  9. 9 DET 20 JAX 23
  10. 10 DET 24 JAX 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 82% of them, Jaguars 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+34.0%
Lions by 9–1621.1%
Lions by 1–825.5%
Level after regulation2.2%
Jaguars by 1–89.7%
Jaguars by 9–165.4%
Jaguars by 17+2.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 18, without the luck Lions by 17.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Brown, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Prater, 57 yds missed · 57% expected
  • J. Brown, 32 yds missed · 95% expected
  • M. Prater, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Prater, 41 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 7 for 60 yards, Jaguars 5 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:05 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (K'Lavon Chaisson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +9% DET +2.1 pts
Q1 7:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Josh Jones), 8 yards +3% DET +0.9 pts
Q2 12:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Josh Jones), 25 yards +5% DET +2.4 pts
Q2 12:36 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% JAX +1.8 pts
Q2 10:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Jayron Kearse), 15 yards +3% JAX +2.1 pts
Q2 6:33 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% JAX +2.8 pts
Q2 0:21 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% JAX +1.7 pts
Q3 7:44 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Keelan Cole), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.4 pts
Q3 4:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Darryl Roberts), 5 yards +2% JAX +1.2 pts
Q3 4:38 Defensive Offside on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET 0.0 pts
Q4 14:18 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Jabaal Sheard), 13 yards +1% DET +2.2 pts
Q4 4:39 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +1.2 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:05 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (K'Lavon Chaisson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 190 snaps before, position avg 1 per 208 +9% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:54 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q2 11:18 M. Prater missed 57-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 10 of 15 from 45+ before +6% JAX DET: Field goal
4 Q2 8:07 J. Brown missed 32-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +6% DET JAX: Turnover
5 Q2 6:33 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% JAX JAX: Turnover
6 Q2 5:18 The Lions converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% DET DET: Field goal
7 Q3 13:48 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% JAX DET: Touchdown
8 Q3 11:46 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% DET JAX: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dede Westbrook (JAX WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Lambo (JAX K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Wingard (JAX DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Wingard (JAX S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Abry Jones (JAX DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • D.J. Hayden (JAX DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Desmond Trufant (DET CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Coleman (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 100% · Jaguars 0%

Final margin
Lions by 18
Luck in points
0.8 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 17.2
Replay with same day's form
Lions 82% · Jaguars 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · Lions · Jaguars

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