luckadjusted

Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Panthers, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Panthers 23–16, but the Panthers played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:06 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kyle Fuller), 11 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Chicago Bears 23
Carolina Panthers 16

October 18, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −2

Luck index +79 Bears very lucky · −79 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 2, Panthers win 8.

  1. 1 CHI 34 CAR 21
  2. 2 CHI 16 CAR 13
  3. 3 CHI 19 CAR 21
  4. 4 CHI 17 CAR 23
  5. 5 CHI 20 CAR 28
  6. 6 CHI 19 CAR 30
  7. 7 CHI 14 CAR 27
  8. 8 CHI 17 CAR 33
  9. 9 CHI 13 CAR 34
  10. 10 CHI 17 CAR 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 21% of them, Panthers 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+2.0%
Bears by 9–165.6%
Bears by 1–812.2%
Level after regulation2.1%
Panthers by 1–826.3%
Panthers by 9–1620.7%
Panthers by 17+31.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.2 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 7, without the luck Panthers by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Santos, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Slye, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Santos, 55 yds made · 59% expected
  • J. Slye, 54 yds missed · 65% expected
  • C. Santos, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Slye, 48 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 10 for 92 yards, Panthers 8 for 69 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Panthers (Chris Manhertz), 10 yards +1% CHI +0.9 pts
Q1 11:46 Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.5 pts
Q1 11:40 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.7 pts
Q1 9:47 Illegal Contact on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 5 yards +3% CAR +0.9 pts
Q1 3:08 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.8 pts
Q2 7:05 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.6 pts
Q2 4:39 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Kyle Fuller), 14 yards +3% CAR +1.0 pts
Q2 3:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Akiem Hicks), 3 yards · pre-snap +9% CAR +2.4 pts
Q2 0:23 Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% CHI +0.2 pts
Q3 14:13 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CHI +1.0 pts
Q3 13:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Troy Pride Jr.), 21 yards +2% CHI +1.4 pts
Q3 10:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kyle Fuller), 11 yards, wiping out the play +14% CAR +3.3 pts
Q3 8:39 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.7 pts
Q3 1:10 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bears, 6 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +2.1 pts
Q3 0:10 Defensive Offside on the Bears (Robert Quinn), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.9 pts
Q3 0:01 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.2 pts
Q4 13:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 33 yards +9% CAR +2.9 pts
Q4 10:48 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers, 13 yards +3% CHI +1.6 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:25 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +10% CHI CAR: Field goal
2 Q1 11:46 The Bears converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedDelay of Game on the Bears, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +9% CHI CHI: Touchdown
3 Q2 3:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Akiem Hicks), 3 yardsPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 467 snaps before, position avg 1 per 262 +9% CAR CAR: Field goal
4 Q3 14:13 The Bears converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% CHI CHI: Punt
5 Q3 10:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kyle Fuller), 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 1529 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 +14% CAR CAR: Missed field goal
6 Q3 6:19 J. Slye missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 15 of 20 from 45+ before +11% CHI CAR: Touchdown
7 Q4 13:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 360 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 +9% CAR CAR: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:00 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +11% CHI CAR: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Curtis Samuel (CAR WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dennis Daley (CAR G), out · 0.3 pts
  • James Daniels (CHI C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • James Daniels (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 57% · Panthers 43%

Final margin
Bears by 7
Luck in points
7.2 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Bears 21% · Panthers 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · Bears · Panthers

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