luckadjusted

Week 6 2020 · October 19, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Cowboys, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Cowboys 38–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 14:10 left): the Cardinals converted 4th & 1, worth 8 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 38
Dallas Cowboys 10

October 19, 2020 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −1

Luck index +15 Cardinals about even · −15 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 8, Cowboys win 2.

  1. 1 ARI 40 DAL 10
  2. 2 ARI 30 DAL 7
  3. 3 ARI 24 DAL 6
  4. 4 ARI 27 DAL 12
  5. 5 ARI 41 DAL 30
  6. 6 ARI 30 DAL 22
  7. 7 ARI 26 DAL 20
  8. 8 ARI 23 DAL 20
  9. 9 ARI 24 DAL 27
  10. 10 ARI 17 DAL 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 85% of them, Cowboys 15%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+41.0%
Cardinals by 9–1623.9%
Cardinals by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation2.1%
Cowboys by 1–89.1%
Cowboys by 9–163.6%
Cowboys by 17+1.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.6 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Cardinals by 28, without the luck Cardinals by 20.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 58 yds missed · 61% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 7 for 43 yards, Cowboys 6 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:13 False Start on the Cardinals (Dan Arnold), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q1 8:09 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.9 pts
Q1 6:35 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Larry Fitzgerald), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% DAL +2.2 pts
Q1 6:35 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.6 pts
Q1 4:59 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +2% ARI +1.3 pts
Q2 10:50 Taunting on the Cowboys (Tyrone Crawford), 0 yards +1% ARI +0.4 pts
Q2 5:34 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 10 yards +2% ARI +1.2 pts
Q3 8:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 6 yards +1% ARI +1.3 pts
Q3 2:33 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Patrick Peterson), 5 yards 0% DAL +1.0 pts
Q4 5:11 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.7 pts
Q4 4:33 Illegal Contact on the Cardinals (Isaiah Simmons), 5 yards 0% DAL +0.8 pts
Q4 3:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals, 10 yards 0% DAL +2.3 pts
Q4 3:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals, 3 yards 0% DAL +0.9 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:19 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% DAL ARI: Punt
2 Q1 9:37 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% ARI ARI: Punt
3 Q1 6:35 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Larry Fitzgerald), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1185 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% DAL DAL: Turnover
4 Q1 2:44 The Cowboys fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% ARI DAL: Turnover
5 Q1 2:27 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
6 Q2 14:10 The Cardinals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +8% ARI ARI: Touchdown
7 Q2 12:19 The Cowboys fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% ARI DAL: Punt
8 Q2 11:26 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% ARI ARI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out, replaced by a.dalton · 5.9 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • La'el Collins (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Sean Lee (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joe Looney (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trysten Hill (DAL DT), out · 0.1 pts
  • Chandler Jones (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • J.R. Sweezy (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • J.R. Sweezy (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 100% · Cowboys 0%

Final margin
Cardinals by 28
Luck in points
7.6 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 20.4
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 85% · Cowboys 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · Cardinals · Cowboys

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