Week 10 2020 · November 15, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Eagles at Giants, Week 10 2020: who deserved to win?
The Giants beat the Eagles 27–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 8 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 20 points of win probability to the Eagles.
An off day for the Eagles: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Eagles were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:02 left): Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 17 |
|---|---|
 New York Giants | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Giants about even · −16 Eagles
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 2, Giants win 8.
- 1 PHI 32 NYG 17
- 2 PHI 25 NYG 21
- 3 PHI 14 NYG 17
- 4 PHI 20 NYG 25
- 5 PHI 0 NYG 8
- 6 PHI 13 NYG 24
- 7 PHI 16 NYG 31
- 8 PHI 14 NYG 33
- 9 PHI 3 NYG 26
- 10 PHI 10 NYG 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Eagles
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles offenseEPA per play gained | +0.12 | +0.06 | better by 0.06 |
| Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.21 | +0.10 | worse by 0.11 |
| Giants offenseEPA per play gained | +0.21 | +0.07 | better by 0.14 |
| Giants defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.15 | better by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 16% of them, Giants 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 1.6% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 4.0% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 9.7% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 19.2% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 24.7% |
| Giants by 17+ | 39.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Elliott, 40 yds made · 83% expected
- G. Gano, 35 yds made · 91% expected
- G. Gano, 44 yds made · 77% expected
Penalties: Eagles 11 for 74 yards, Giants 7 for 64 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:55 | Encroachment on the Eagles (Malik Jackson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% NYG +0.8 pts |
| Q1 8:54 | False Start on the Eagles (Jalen Reagor), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:52 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYG +0.5 pts |
| Q2 14:57 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Corey Clement), 9 yards | +1% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:58 | Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.5 pts |
| Q2 9:58 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 5 yards | +2% NYG +1.0 pts |
| Q2 7:07 | Encroachment on the Giants (B.J. Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 7:05 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 14 yards | +4% PHI +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:17 | Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:57 | False Start on the Eagles (Travis Fulgham), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYG +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | Offensive Holding on the Giants (Dion Lewis), 10 yards | +3% PHI +1.8 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles (Shaun Bradley), 10 yards | +1% NYG +1.0 pts |
| Q3 2:57 | Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% PHI +1.0 pts |
| Q4 11:02 | Defensive Holding on the Eagles, 5 yards | +2% NYG +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:28 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% PHI +0.5 pts |
| Q4 9:02 | Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% PHI +3.2 pts |
| Q4 6:13 | Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Leonard Williams), 15 yards | +5% PHI +1.4 pts |
| Q4 1:11 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Malik Jackson), 15 yards | 0% NYG +1.6 pts |
Eagles penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Giants’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:55 | The Giants converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedEncroachment on the Eagles (Malik Jackson), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 335 snaps before, position avg 1 per 262 | +10% NYG | NYG: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:23 | The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +5% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 15:00 | The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +7% NYG | NYG: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 14:18 | The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +7% PHI | NYG: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 12:40 | The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% PHI | PHI: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 9:02 | Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% PHI | PHI: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 4:56 | The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% NYG | PHI: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 3:11 | G. Gano made 44-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him | +5% NYG | NYG: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ryan Lewis (NYG DB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Ryan Lewis (NYG CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Devonta Freeman (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Lorenzo Carter (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Adrian Colbert (NYG DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tae Crowder (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Zach Ertz (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- DeSean Jackson (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Nathan Gerry (PHI DB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Nathan Gerry (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Isaac Seumalo (PHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 1% · Giants 99%
- Final margin
- Giants by 10
- Luck in points
- 5.9 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Giants by 15.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 16% · Giants 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2020 games · 
Eagles · 
Giants
More from Week 10 2020
- Colts at Titans IND 34–17 · replay 67% for the winner
- Texans at Browns CLE 10–7 · replay 43% for the winner
- Jaguars at Packers GB 24–20 · replay 87% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 46–23 · replay 69% for the winner
- Washington at Lions DET 30–27 · replay 84% for the winner
- Bills at Cardinals ARI 32–30 · replay 69% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders LV 37–12 · replay 93% for the winner
- Chargers at Dolphins MIA 29–21 · replay 29% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers PIT 36–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams LA 23–16 · replay 60% for the winner
- 49ers at Saints NO 27–13 · replay 36% for the winner
- Ravens at Patriots NE 23–17 · replay 93% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 19–13 · replay 91% for the winner