luckadjusted

Week 10 2020 · November 15, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Steelers, Week 10 2020: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Bengals 36–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:40 left): the Bengals converted 4th & 2, worth 14 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 10
Pittsburgh Steelers 36

November 15, 2020 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −6.5

Luck index +12 Steelers about even · −12 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 1, Steelers win 9.

  1. 1 CIN 24 PIT 17
  2. 2 CIN 24 PIT 27
  3. 3 CIN 28 PIT 34
  4. 4 CIN 10 PIT 19
  5. 5 CIN 24 PIT 36
  6. 6 CIN 18 PIT 33
  7. 7 CIN 16 PIT 35
  8. 8 CIN 13 PIT 35
  9. 9 CIN 7 PIT 33
  10. 10 CIN 6 PIT 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 12% of them, Steelers 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+1.2%
Bengals by 9–163.1%
Bengals by 1–86.9%
Level after regulation1.3%
Steelers by 1–816.7%
Steelers by 9–1619.4%
Steelers by 17+51.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.1 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 26, without the luck Steelers by 16.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 41 yds made · 81% expected
  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Boswell, 45 yds made · 75% expected
  • R. Bullock, 37 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 6 for 65 yards, Steelers 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:16 False Start on the Bengals (Tee Higgins), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.6 pts
Q1 10:30 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.6 pts
Q1 10:18 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Eric Ebron), 10 yards +2% CIN +1.0 pts
Q1 3:03 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +2% CIN +0.9 pts
Q1 1:46 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 8:40 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Sam Hubbard), 15 yards +3% PIT +1.3 pts
Q2 8:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (William Jackson III), 15 yards +3% PIT +1.5 pts
Q2 5:31 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +4% PIT +1.8 pts
Q3 11:19 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.6 pts
Q3 3:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals, 15 yards 0% PIT +1.5 pts
Q3 2:30 Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.7 pts
Q4 4:20 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CIN +1.5 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 The Bengals fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PIT CIN: Punt
2 Q1 12:08 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +5% CIN PIT: Field goal
3 Q1 4:57 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% CIN PIT: Field goal
4 Q2 10:40 The Bengals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +14% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:49 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:27 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% PIT PIT: Touchdown
7 Q2 5:31 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% PIT PIT: Field goal
8 Q2 1:51 C. Boswell made 45-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 7 of 8 from 45+ before +4% PIT PIT: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Hilton (PIT CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Vance McDonald (PIT TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kevin Dotson (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • LeShaun Sims (CIN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jonah Williams (CIN OT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Darius Phillips (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joe Mixon (CIN HB), out · 0.3 pts
  • C.J. Uzomah (CIN TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bobby Hart (CIN OT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 0% · Steelers 100%

Final margin
Steelers by 26
Luck in points
9.1 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 16.9
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 12% · Steelers 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2020 games · Bengals · Steelers

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