luckadjusted

Week 13 2020 · December 6, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Seahawks, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Seahawks 17–12, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Giants win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:06 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 24 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 17
Seattle Seahawks 12

December 6, 2020 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −11

Luck index +46 Giants lucky · −46 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 5, Seahawks win 5.

  1. 1 NYG 40 SEA 21
  2. 2 NYG 33 SEA 20
  3. 3 NYG 23 SEA 14
  4. 4 NYG 27 SEA 23
  5. 5 NYG 26 SEA 24
  6. 6 NYG 26 SEA 28
  7. 7 NYG 22 SEA 27
  8. 8 NYG 16 SEA 26
  9. 9 NYG 16 SEA 31
  10. 10 NYG 7 SEA 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 54% of them, Seahawks 46%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+12.3%
Giants by 9–1615.2%
Giants by 1–821.9%
Level after regulation5.1%
Seahawks by 1–822.1%
Seahawks by 9–1613.1%
Seahawks by 17+10.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Giants by 5, without the luck Giants by 6.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Gano, 48 yds made · 78% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 6 for 35 yards, Seahawks 6 for 41 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:07 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Jarran Reed), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q1 11:03 False Start on the Giants (Brandon Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.5 pts
Q1 4:29 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 10 yards +2% SEA +1.2 pts
Q2 13:04 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q2 12:00 False Start on the Giants (Sterling Shepard), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.8 pts
Q2 8:56 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 0:24 Intentional Grounding on the Seahawks (Russell Wilson), 11 yards +3% NYG +1.0 pts
Q2 0:24 False Start on the Seahawks (Jacob Hollister), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.4 pts
Q3 12:21 False Start on the Giants (Levine Toilolo), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.4 pts
Q3 1:18 Defensive Holding on the Giants (B.J. Hill), 5 yards +4% SEA +0.9 pts
Q3 0:04 Illegal Formation on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% NYG +1.8 pts
Q4 6:21 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yards +2% SEA +1.7 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:49 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% NYG SEA: Punt
2 Q1 5:12 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% NYG NYG: Turnover
3 Q1 2:31 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +19% SEA NYG: Punt
4 Q2 6:06 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedThe Seahawks fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +24% NYG SEA: Punt
5 Q3 10:56 The Seahawks fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% SEA SEA: Punt
6 Q3 5:14 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +11% NYG SEA: Punt
7 Q4 0:54 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +12% NYG SEA: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:48 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 183rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +10% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Shell (SEA T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Greg Olsen (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Quinton Dunbar (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tre Flowers (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out, replaced by c.mccoy · 1.6 pts
  • Ryan Lewis (NYG DB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Devonta Freeman (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Adrian Colbert (NYG DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kyler Fackrell (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 91% · Seahawks 9%

Final margin
Giants by 5
Luck in points
1.1 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 6.1
Replay with same day's form
Giants 54% · Seahawks 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · Giants · Seahawks

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