Week 13 2019 · December 1, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Washington at Panthers, Week 13 2019: who deserved to win?
Washington beat the Panthers 29–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.
An off day for the Panthers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Washington they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 31%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Panthers were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:27 left): the Panthers were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 11 points of win probability to the Washington.
Final
 Washington Redskins | 29 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 Washington lucky · −31 Panthers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Washington win 7, Panthers win 3.
- 1 WAS 38 CAR 10
- 2 WAS 31 CAR 10
- 3 WAS 26 CAR 9
- 4 WAS 31 CAR 17
- 5 WAS 22 CAR 13
- 6 WAS 16 CAR 10
- 7 WAS 19 CAR 17
- 8 WAS 10 CAR 13
- 9 WAS 16 CAR 23
- 10 WAS 10 CAR 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Panthers
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Washington they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 31%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.00 | better by 0.07 |
| Washington defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.09 | +0.15 | better by 0.24 |
| Panthers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.09 | +0.14 | worse by 0.23 |
| Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.15 | better by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Washington win 69% of them, Panthers 31%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Washington by 17+ | 26.0% |
| Washington by 9–16 | 19.7% |
| Washington by 1–8 | 22.4% |
| Level after regulation | 3.2% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 15.4% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 8.9% |
| Panthers by 17+ | 4.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Hopkins, 25 yds made · 97% expected
- D. Hopkins, 42 yds made · 80% expected
- D. Hopkins, 49 yds blocked · 67% expected
- D. Hopkins, 36 yds made · 89% expected
Penalties: Washington 6 for 65 yards, Panthers 5 for 43 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:21 | Unnecessary Roughness on Washington (Daron Payne), 15 yards | +2% CAR +2.1 pts |
| Q1 3:09 | Illegal Double-Team Block on the Panthers (Alex Armah), 11 yards | +1% WAS +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:17 | Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAS +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:16 | Offside on Free Kick on Washington (Simeon Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAR +0.5 pts |
| Q2 7:42 | Kick Catch Interference on the Panthers, 15 yards | +2% WAS +1.4 pts |
| Q2 1:21 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Ross Cockrell), 7 yards | +2% WAS +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:15 | Offensive Pass Interference on Washington (Jeremy Sprinkle), 10 yards | +3% CAR +0.2 pts |
| Q3 12:17 | Illegal Formation on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAR +0.7 pts |
| Q3 4:34 | Disqualification on Washington (Ryan Anderson), 15 yards | +6% CAR +1.5 pts |
| Q3 3:31 | Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% WAS +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:27 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Washington, 15 yards | +1% CAR +1.4 pts |
Washington penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 0:10 | D. Hopkins had a 49-yard field goal blockedKicks · 67% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before | +8% CAR | WAS: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 9:25 | Washington were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +10% CAR | WAS: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 5:59 | The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% CAR | CAR: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 4:34 | Disqualification on Washington (Ryan Anderson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 486 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 | +6% CAR | CAR: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 2:44 | Washington fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% WAS | WAS: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 1:51 | Onside kick recovered by the PanthersSpecial teams | +7% CAR | CAR: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 0:31 | The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +6% WAS | CAR: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:27 | The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedThe Panthers fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Washington, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +11% WAS | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Greg Little (CAR T), out · 0.4 pts
- Dontari Poe (CAR NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Greg Van Roten (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Ryan Kerrigan (WAS LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Paul Richardson (WAS WR), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Washington 96% · Panthers 4%
- Final margin
- Washington by 8
- Luck in points
- 2.4 for the Panthers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Washington by 10.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Washington 69% · Panthers 31% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2019 games · 
Washington · 
Panthers
More from Week 13 2019
- Bears at Lions CHI 24–20 · replay 66% for the winner
- Bills at Cowboys BUF 26–15 · replay 40% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons NO 26–18 · replay 83% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 20–13 · replay 77% for the winner
- Packers at Giants GB 31–13 · replay 58% for the winner
- Jets at Bengals CIN 22–6 · replay 80% for the winner
- Eagles at Dolphins MIA 37–31 · replay 55% for the winner
- 49ers at Ravens BAL 20–17 · replay 69% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Jaguars TB 28–11 · replay 95% for the winner
- Titans at Colts TEN 31–17 · replay 24% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 34–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chargers at Broncos DEN 23–20 · replay 14% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs KC 40–9 · replay 78% for the winner
- Patriots at Texans HOU 28–22 · replay 68% for the winner
- Vikings at Seahawks SEA 37–30 · replay 60% for the winner