luckadjusted

Week 13 2019 · December 1, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Jaguars, Week 13 2019: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Jaguars 28–11, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:46 left): Return touchdown by the Buccaneers, worth 24 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28
Jacksonville Jaguars 11

December 1, 2019 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −3

Luck index +5 Buccaneers about even · −5 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 10, Jaguars win 0.

  1. 1 TB 51 JAX 16
  2. 2 TB 29 JAX 3
  3. 3 TB 29 JAX 6
  4. 4 TB 30 JAX 10
  5. 5 TB 31 JAX 14
  6. 6 TB 20 JAX 6
  7. 7 TB 12 JAX 0
  8. 8 TB 32 JAX 23
  9. 9 TB 20 JAX 14
  10. 10 TB 27 JAX 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 95% of them, Jaguars 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+62.6%
Buccaneers by 9–1622.1%
Buccaneers by 1–810.0%
Level after regulation0.6%
Jaguars by 1–83.6%
Jaguars by 9–160.9%
Jaguars by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 17, without the luck Buccaneers by 14.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Lambo, 53 yds made · 62% expected
  • M. Gay, 37 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 8 for 44 yards, Jaguars 16 for 121 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (D.J. Hayden), 6 yards +3% TB +0.9 pts
Q1 11:22 Illegal Formation on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.7 pts
Q1 2:39 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (D.J. Hayden), 1 yard · pre-snap +1% TB 0.0 pts
Q2 9:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 20 yards +1% TB +1.4 pts
Q2 3:30 Illegal Blindside Block on the Jaguars (Keelan Cole), 10 yards 0% TB +0.8 pts
Q2 3:19 Intentional Grounding on the Jaguars (Nick Foles), 9 yards +1% TB +0.9 pts
Q2 0:57 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.2 pts
Q2 0:09 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards 0% JAX +0.4 pts
Q3 14:57 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% TB +1.8 pts
Q3 13:57 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.5 pts
Q3 8:39 Illegal Formation on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.5 pts
Q3 5:51 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.8 pts
Q3 3:58 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% JAX +1.7 pts
Q3 1:32 Illegal Shift on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +1.0 pts
Q4 7:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Lavonte David), 4 yards +5% JAX +4.4 pts
Q4 5:23 False Start on the Buccaneers, 1 yard · pre-snap +4% JAX +0.5 pts
Q4 5:02 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars, 10 yards +3% TB +0.9 pts
Q4 4:45 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +1% TB +0.9 pts
Q4 4:07 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.3 pts
Q4 3:33 Illegal Forward Pass on the Jaguars (Gardner Minshew II), 5 yards 0% TB +0.5 pts
Q4 2:23 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.9 pts
Q4 2:19 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards 0% TB +0.9 pts
Q4 2:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Jason Pierre-Paul), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.6 pts
Q4 1:51 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.3 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:20 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% TB TB: Punt
2 Q1 12:44 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% TB TB: Punt
3 Q1 9:35 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% JAX TB: Punt
4 Q1 7:54 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +12% JAX JAX: Turnover
5 Q1 3:48 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q1 2:46 The Jaguars fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BuccaneersSpecial teams +24% TB JAX: Turnover
7 Q4 9:18 The Jaguars converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% JAX JAX: Turnover
8 Q4 6:16 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% TB JAX: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcell Dareus (JAX DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Myles Jack (JAX LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ronnie Harrison (JAX SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • James O'Shaughnessy (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Geoff Swaim (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 99% · Jaguars 1%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 17
Luck in points
2.9 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 14.1
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 95% · Jaguars 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2019 games · Buccaneers · Jaguars

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