luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · October 28, 2021–November 1

Week 8 2021: who deserved to win

6 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Saints beat the Buccaneers 36–27 in a game they win 22% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 8 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 8 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Jets 34–31 vs Bengals 20% 62% Deserved
Packers 24–21 @ Cardinals 32% 35% Lucky
Steelers 15–10 @ Browns 34% 54% Coin flip
Cowboys 20–16 @ Vikings 37% 93% Deserved
Saints 36–27 vs Buccaneers 38% 22% Lucky
Patriots 27–24 @ Chargers 40% 24% Lucky
Titans 34–31 @ Colts 41% 38% Lucky
Panthers 19–13 @ Falcons 43% 32% Lucky

Week 8 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Saints W 36–27 vs Buccaneers 22% +78
2 Patriots W 27–24 @ Chargers 24% +76
3 Panthers W 19–13 @ Falcons 32% +68
4 Packers W 24–21 @ Cardinals 35% +65
5 Titans W 34–31 @ Colts 38% +62
6 Broncos W 17–10 vs Washington 48% +52
7 Steelers W 15–10 @ Browns 54% +46
8 Seahawks W 31–7 vs Jaguars 57% +43
9 Jets W 34–31 vs Bengals 62% +38
10 Chiefs W 20–17 vs Giants 81% +19
11 Bills W 26–11 vs Dolphins 92% +8
12 Cowboys W 20–16 @ Vikings 93% +7
13 49ers W 33–22 @ Bears 96% +4
14 Eagles W 44–6 @ Lions 98% +2
15 Rams W 38–22 @ Texans 98% +2
16 Texans L 22–38 vs Rams 2% −2
17 Lions L 6–44 vs Eagles 2% −2
18 Bears L 22–33 vs 49ers 4% −4
19 Vikings L 16–20 vs Cowboys 7% −7
20 Dolphins L 11–26 @ Bills 8% −8
21 Giants L 17–20 @ Chiefs 19% −19
22 Bengals L 31–34 @ Jets 38% −38
23 Jaguars L 7–31 @ Seahawks 43% −43
24 Browns L 10–15 vs Steelers 46% −46
25 Washington L 10–17 @ Broncos 52% −52
26 Colts L 31–34 vs Titans 62% −62
27 Cardinals L 21–24 vs Packers 65% −65
28 Falcons L 13–19 vs Panthers 68% −68
29 Chargers L 24–27 vs Patriots 76% −76
30 Buccaneers L 27–36 @ Saints 78% −78