luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · November 4, 2021–November 8

Week 9 2021: who deserved to win

4 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Giants beat the Raiders 23–16 in a game they win 13% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 9 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Jaguars 9–6 vs Bills 14% 41% Coin flip
Broncos 30–16 @ Cowboys 22% 52% Coin flip
Falcons 27–25 @ Saints 30% 58% Coin flip
Titans 28–16 @ Rams 30% 35% Lucky
Cardinals 31–17 @ 49ers 34% 84% Deserved
Giants 23–16 vs Raiders 41% 13% Lucky
Browns 41–16 @ Bengals 43% 63% Deserved

Week 9 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Giants W 23–16 vs Raiders 13% +87
2 Steelers W 29–27 vs Bears 34% +66
3 Titans W 28–16 @ Rams 35% +65
4 Jaguars W 9–6 vs Bills 41% +59
5 Broncos W 30–16 @ Cowboys 52% +48
6 Dolphins W 17–9 vs Texans 58% +42
7 Falcons W 27–25 @ Saints 58% +42
8 Browns W 41–16 @ Bengals 63% +37
9 Chiefs W 13–7 vs Packers 68% +32
10 Chargers W 27–24 @ Eagles 79% +21
11 Patriots W 24–6 @ Panthers 82% +18
12 Colts W 45–30 vs Jets 82% +18
13 Cardinals W 31–17 @ 49ers 84% +16
14 Ravens W 34–31 vs Vikings 92% +8
15 Vikings L 31–34 @ Ravens 8% −8
16 49ers L 17–31 vs Cardinals 16% −16
17 Jets L 30–45 @ Colts 18% −18
18 Panthers L 6–24 vs Patriots 18% −18
19 Eagles L 24–27 vs Chargers 21% −21
20 Packers L 7–13 @ Chiefs 32% −32
21 Bengals L 16–41 vs Browns 37% −37
22 Saints L 25–27 vs Falcons 42% −42
23 Texans L 9–17 @ Dolphins 42% −42
24 Cowboys L 16–30 vs Broncos 48% −48
25 Bills L 6–9 @ Jaguars 59% −59
26 Rams L 16–28 vs Titans 65% −65
27 Bears L 27–29 @ Steelers 66% −66
28 Raiders L 16–23 @ Giants 87% −87