luckadjusted

Week 9 2021 · November 7, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Jaguars, Week 9 2021: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Bills 9–6, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Jaguars win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 36 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Bills were 86% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:41 left): the Bills were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 37 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Buffalo Bills 6
Jacksonville Jaguars 9

November 7, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Bills −14.5

Luck index +59 Jaguars lucky · −59 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 6, Jaguars win 4.

  1. 1 BUF 31 JAX 10
  2. 2 BUF 24 JAX 9
  3. 3 BUF 24 JAX 13
  4. 4 BUF 21 JAX 14
  5. 5 BUF 12 JAX 7
  6. 6 BUF 26 JAX 24
  7. 7 BUF 10 JAX 12
  8. 8 BUF 3 JAX 9
  9. 9 BUF 21 JAX 31
  10. 10 BUF 10 JAX 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 59% of them, Jaguars 41%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+12.6%
Bills by 9–1616.3%
Bills by 1–829.7%
Level after regulation2.5%
Jaguars by 1–820.6%
Jaguars by 9–1612.9%
Jaguars by 17+5.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.2 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 3, without the luck Bills by 5.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 39 yds made · 86% expected
  • T. Bass, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Bass, 41 yds made · 83% expected
  • M. Wright, 55 yds made · 58% expected
  • M. Wright, 42 yds missed · 81% expected
  • M. Wright, 21 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 12 for 118 yards, Jaguars 8 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:19 Taunting on the Jaguars (Laviska Shenault Jr.), 15 yards +4% BUF +1.3 pts
Q1 13:06 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 15 yards +5% JAX +1.5 pts
Q2 12:39 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills, 15 yards +5% JAX +1.5 pts
Q2 10:59 Illegal Motion on the Jaguars (Laquon Treadwell), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% BUF +1.4 pts
Q2 7:57 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bills (Siran Neal), 5 yards +3% JAX +0.7 pts
Q2 7:30 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars, 10 yards +3% BUF +0.9 pts
Q2 5:30 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (A.J. Klein), 15 yards +5% JAX +1.6 pts
Q2 3:00 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Star Lotulelei), 5 yards +2% JAX +1.2 pts
Q2 1:41 Roughing the Passer on the Bills (Tremaine Edmunds), 15 yards +5% JAX +2.8 pts
Q3 8:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Siran Neal), 19 yards +5% JAX +1.0 pts
Q3 8:05 False Start on the Jaguars, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.7 pts
Q3 5:49 Running Into the Kicker on the Bills (Taiwan Jones), 5 yards +2% JAX +0.1 pts
Q3 5:49 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.7 pts
Q3 5:41 False Start on the Bills (Tommy Sweeney), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.6 pts
Q3 3:26 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% JAX +1.4 pts
Q3 0:30 False Start on the Jaguars (Marvin Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.9 pts
Q4 13:29 Taunting on the Bills, 4 yards +3% JAX +0.8 pts
Q4 10:04 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% JAX +0.7 pts
Q4 8:28 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.6 pts
Q4 0:07 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.1 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:00 The Jaguars converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +16% JAX JAX: Field goal
2 Q2 1:51 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% JAX JAX: Turnover
3 Q3 10:13 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +13% JAX BUF: Turnover
4 Q3 4:11 The Bills converted 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +10% BUF BUF: Turnover
5 Q3 2:02 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% JAX BUF: Punt
6 Q4 5:41 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedThe Bills fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +37% JAX BUF: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:18 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +20% JAX BUF: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:11 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 163rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +17% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tre Herndon (JAX CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • A.J. Cann (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • James Robinson (JAX RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Dawson Knox (BUF TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Spencer Brown (BUF T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jon Feliciano (BUF G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 75% · Jaguars 25%

Final margin
Jaguars by 3
Luck in points
8.2 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Bills 59% · Jaguars 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2021 games · Bills · Jaguars

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