luckadjusted

Week 9 2021 · November 7, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Saints, Week 9 2021: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Saints 27–25, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Falcons win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Saints were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): Y. Koo made 29-yard field goal, worth 24 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 27
New Orleans Saints 25

November 7, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −7

Luck index +42 Falcons lucky · −42 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 6, Saints win 4.

  1. 1 ATL 31 NO 7
  2. 2 ATL 31 NO 16
  3. 3 ATL 30 NO 17
  4. 4 ATL 14 NO 6
  5. 5 ATL 34 NO 29
  6. 6 ATL 29 NO 27
  7. 7 ATL 27 NO 29
  8. 8 ATL 23 NO 30
  9. 9 ATL 17 NO 30
  10. 10 ATL 21 NO 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 58% of them, Saints 42%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+15.9%
Falcons by 9–1615.4%
Falcons by 1–825.8%
Level after regulation2.8%
Saints by 1–818.8%
Saints by 9–1613.4%
Saints by 17+8.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.2 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 2, without the luck Saints by 6.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 32 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Johnson, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • B. Johnson, 52 yds made · 71% expected
  • Y. Koo, 29 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 6 for 76 yards, Saints 10 for 74 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:27 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +8% NO +1.5 pts
Q1 0:35 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +3% ATL +1.4 pts
Q1 0:04 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.4 pts
Q2 14:55 Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +0.1 pts
Q2 6:47 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +6% ATL +1.1 pts
Q2 0:19 Taunting on the Saints (Kwon Alexander), 4 yards +3% ATL +0.7 pts
Q3 5:13 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +2% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 4:35 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Tre'Quan Smith), 10 yards +2% ATL +0.7 pts
Q3 2:37 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Adam Trautman), 10 yards +3% ATL +1.3 pts
Q3 1:31 Encroachment on the Falcons (Tyeler Davison), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +2.7 pts
Q4 11:00 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.6 pts
Q4 10:39 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO 0.0 pts
Q4 5:39 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Richie Grant), 15 yards +3% NO +1.5 pts
Q4 5:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Fabian Moreau), 27 yards +3% NO +1.6 pts
Q4 5:10 Roughing the Passer on the Falcons (Foyesade Oluokun), 14 yards, wiping out the play +7% NO +2.6 pts
Q4 4:35 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Bradley Roby), 5 yards 0% ATL +0.4 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:19 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% ATL ATL: Punt
2 Q1 12:27 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yardsJudgment calls +8% NO NO: Punt
3 Q2 8:48 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +12% ATL NO: Punt
4 Q2 7:28 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +12% NO ATL: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:55 The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:10 Roughing the Passer on the Falcons (Foyesade Oluokun), 14 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2067 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +7% NO NO: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:01 The Saints’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +10% ATL –
8 Q4 0:03 Y. Koo made 29-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +24% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jameis Winston (NO QB), out (IR), replaced by t.siemian · 5.3 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Calvin Ridley (ATL WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Isaiah Oliver (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dante Fowler (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cameron Nizialek (ATL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 37% · Saints 63%

Final margin
Falcons by 2
Luck in points
8.2 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 6.2
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 58% · Saints 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2021 games · Falcons · Saints

More from Week 9 2021