luckadjusted

Week 9 2021 · November 7, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Ravens, Week 9 2021: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Vikings 34–31, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:03 left): Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Camryn Bynum), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to the Ravens. The biggest single swing (QOT, 1:51 left): the Ravens converted 3rd & 2.

Final (OT)

Minnesota Vikings 31
Baltimore Ravens 34

November 7, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7.5

Luck index +8 Ravens about even · −8 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 MIN 23 BAL 16
  2. 2 MIN 24 BAL 27
  3. 3 MIN 12 BAL 17
  4. 4 MIN 26 BAL 34
  5. 5 MIN 19 BAL 31
  6. 6 MIN 27 BAL 42
  7. 7 MIN 16 BAL 33
  8. 8 MIN 6 BAL 27
  9. 9 MIN 13 BAL 38
  10. 10 MIN 17 BAL 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 8% of them, Ravens 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+0.6%
Vikings by 9–161.7%
Vikings by 1–84.8%
Level after regulation0.8%
Ravens by 1–814.9%
Ravens by 9–1620.1%
Ravens by 17+57.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.7 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 3, without the luck Vikings by 10.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Joseph, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Tucker, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 8 for 107 yards, Ravens 8 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:48 Horse Collar Tackle on the Vikings (D.J. Wonnum), 15 yards, wiping out the play +18% BAL +6.6 pts
Q1 4:54 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.3 pts
Q2 13:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 1 yard +5% MIN +3.2 pts
Q2 11:52 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +3% MIN +1.2 pts
Q2 0:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Xavier Woods), 42 yards, wiping out the play +12% BAL +6.4 pts
Q3 14:34 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% MIN +1.7 pts
Q3 12:39 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Vikings, 15 yards +2% BAL +1.8 pts
Q3 8:34 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 10 yards +2% BAL +1.6 pts
Q3 6:50 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +1.0 pts
Q3 5:52 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +6% BAL +1.3 pts
Q4 1:03 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Camryn Bynum), 5 yards, wiping out the play +18% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 0:22 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Mark Andrews), 10 yards +8% MIN +0.4 pts
QOT 5:23 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 10 yards +7% MIN +0.8 pts
QOT 2:21 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% BAL +0.4 pts
QOT 2:16 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Eric Tomlinson), 10 yards +22% MIN +1.3 pts
QOT 2:11 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +11% MIN +0.7 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:48 Horse Collar Tackle on the Vikings (D.J. Wonnum), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 953 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 +18% BAL BAL: Field goal
2 Q1 8:39 The Vikings converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +19% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:26 The Vikings converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +15% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q3 15:00 Return touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams +14% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:15 The Vikings converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +14% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:03 The game turned hereDefensive Holding on the Vikings (Camryn Bynum), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 138 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +18% BAL BAL: End of game
7 QOT 2:16 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Eric Tomlinson), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 546 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +22% MIN –
8 QOT 1:51 The Ravens converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +28% BAL BAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sammy Watkins (BAL WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Patrick Mekari (BAL G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Patrick Peterson (MIN CB), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Harrison Smith (MIN SS), out · 0.7 pts
  • Garrett Bradbury (MIN C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 70% · Ravens 30%

Final margin
Ravens by 3
Luck in points
13.7 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 10.7
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 8% · Ravens 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2021 games · Vikings · Ravens

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