luckadjusted

Week 9 2021 · November 4, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Colts, Week 9 2021: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Jets 45–30, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 78% favorites.

Final

New York Jets 30
Indianapolis Colts 45

November 4, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −10.5

Luck index +18 Colts about even · −18 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 2, Colts win 8.

  1. 1 NYJ 30 IND 19
  2. 2 NYJ 35 IND 31
  3. 3 NYJ 28 IND 30
  4. 4 NYJ 27 IND 31
  5. 5 NYJ 19 IND 28
  6. 6 NYJ 16 IND 28
  7. 7 NYJ 30 IND 45
  8. 8 NYJ 34 IND 52
  9. 9 NYJ 21 IND 44
  10. 10 NYJ 14 IND 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 18% of them, Colts 82%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+1.8%
Jets by 9–164.3%
Jets by 1–810.0%
Level after regulation2.1%
Colts by 1–819.3%
Colts by 9–1624.1%
Colts by 17+38.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 points to the Jets: the final margin was Colts by 15, without the luck Colts by 17. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Ammendola, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Badgley, 39 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 7 for 43 yards, Colts 2 for 22 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +2% IND +0.9 pts
Q1 10:58 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.1 pts
Q2 4:26 False Start on the Jets (Keelan Cole), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.6 pts
Q3 9:04 False Start on the Jets, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% IND 0.0 pts
Q3 8:10 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jets, 15 yards +1% IND +1.4 pts
Q3 7:20 Face Mask on the Jets (C.J. Mosley), 3 yards 0% IND +0.8 pts
Q4 6:40 Face Mask on the Colts (Isaiah Rodgers), 15 yards 0% NYJ +1.9 pts
Q4 3:47 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.5 pts
Q4 1:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 7 yards, wiping out the play 0% NYJ +3.4 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:52 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:45 The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +4% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:58 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:17 The Colts converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +6% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:38 The Jets converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
6 Q2 11:11 The Jets fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% IND NYJ: Field goal
7 Q2 11:03 The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% IND IND: Touchdown
8 Q2 6:27 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +4% IND IND: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Khari Willis (IND SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Julian Blackmon (IND FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • T.J. Carrie (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Rodrigo Blankenship (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Parris Campbell (IND WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Corey Davis (NYJ WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Mekhi Becton (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bryce Huff (NYJ DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Braden Mann (NYJ P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Colts 100%

Final margin
Colts by 15
Luck in points
2.0 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 17.0
Replay with same day's form
Jets 18% · Colts 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2021 games · Jets · Colts

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