luckadjusted

Week 9 2021 · November 7, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Eagles, Week 9 2021: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Eagles 27–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:48 left): the Chargers converted 4th & 1, worth 20 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 27
Philadelphia Eagles 24

November 7, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Chargers −1

Luck index +21 Chargers about even · −21 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 8, Eagles win 2.

  1. 1 LAC 33 PHI 6
  2. 2 LAC 27 PHI 9
  3. 3 LAC 17 PHI 3
  4. 4 LAC 35 PHI 24
  5. 5 LAC 35 PHI 27
  6. 6 LAC 20 PHI 14
  7. 7 LAC 27 PHI 23
  8. 8 LAC 26 PHI 24
  9. 9 LAC 10 PHI 13
  10. 10 LAC 10 PHI 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 79% of them, Eagles 21%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+23.0%
Chargers by 9–1624.3%
Chargers by 1–828.1%
Level after regulation4.3%
Eagles by 1–813.9%
Eagles by 9–164.3%
Eagles by 17+2.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.8 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Chargers by 3, without the luck Chargers by 9.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 4 for 30 yards, Eagles 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:52 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Justin Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.6 pts
Q2 11:14 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Steven Nelson), 15 yards +5% LAC +2.2 pts
Q2 10:14 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% PHI +2.6 pts
Q3 1:51 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 5 yards +7% LAC +1.4 pts
Q3 1:05 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Stephen Anderson), 10 yards +9% PHI +1.7 pts
Q4 13:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% LAC +0.7 pts
Q4 2:00 False Start on the Chargers (Donald Parham), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% PHI +0.6 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:46 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +12% PHI LAC: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:25 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q2 10:14 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% PHI PHI: Field goal
4 Q2 7:30 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +10% PHI LAC: End of half
5 Q3 3:43 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 15:00 The Chargers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +13% LAC LAC: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:48 The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +20% LAC LAC: Field goal
8 Q4 1:45 The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +15% LAC LAC: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Brooks (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Miles Sanders (PHI RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Michael Davis (LAC CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kenneth Murray (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Oday Aboushi (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 96% · Eagles 4%

Final margin
Chargers by 3
Luck in points
6.8 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 9.8
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 79% · Eagles 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2021 games · Chargers · Eagles

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