luckadjusted

Week 9 2021 · November 7, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Rams, Week 9 2021: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Rams 28–16, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Rams were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:16 left): Return touchdown by the Titans, worth 17 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 28
Los Angeles Rams 16

November 7, 2021 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −7

Luck index +65 Titans very lucky · −65 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 4, Rams win 6.

  1. 1 TEN 33 LA 17
  2. 2 TEN 19 LA 9
  3. 3 TEN 23 LA 17
  4. 4 TEN 22 LA 19
  5. 5 TEN 24 LA 26
  6. 6 TEN 24 LA 29
  7. 7 TEN 14 LA 23
  8. 8 TEN 19 LA 31
  9. 9 TEN 11 LA 29
  10. 10 TEN 10 LA 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 35% of them, Rams 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+4.7%
Titans by 9–169.7%
Titans by 1–820.0%
Level after regulation2.2%
Rams by 1–827.3%
Rams by 9–1618.8%
Rams by 17+17.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.5 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 12, without the luck Titans by 4.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Gay, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Gay, 54 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 4 for 19 yards, Rams 12 for 115 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:39 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 15 yards +3% TEN +1.4 pts
Q1 1:44 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Van Jefferson), 10 yards +1% TEN +0.9 pts
Q2 13:27 False Start on the Rams, 3 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.5 pts
Q2 12:10 Low Block on the Rams, 12 yards +1% TEN +1.1 pts
Q2 7:47 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Rams (Terrell Lewis), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.6 pts
Q2 6:15 Face Mask on the Rams, 15 yards +3% TEN +1.8 pts
Q3 12:06 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +2% TEN +1.1 pts
Q3 10:38 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +0.5 pts
Q3 8:25 Illegal Touch Pass on the Rams (Tyler Higbee), 0 yards 0% TEN 0.0 pts
Q3 6:45 False Start on the Titans (Anthony Firkser), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +1.1 pts
Q4 10:56 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.6 pts
Q4 9:47 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +3% TEN +2.2 pts
Q4 5:07 Roughing the Passer on the Rams (Aaron Donald), 15 yards +2% TEN +2.0 pts
Q4 4:15 Roughing the Passer on the Rams (Ogbonnia Okoronkwo), 15 yards +1% TEN +1.6 pts
Q4 0:37 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Jackrabbit Jenkins), 4 yards 0% LA +1.6 pts
Q4 0:37 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.9 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:02 The Rams converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% LA LA: Field goal
2 Q1 3:54 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% TEN LA: Field goal
3 Q1 2:32 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +5% LA TEN: Punt
4 Q1 0:32 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +4% TEN LA: Punt
5 Q2 12:36 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +17% TEN LA: Opp touchdown
6 Q2 12:16 Return touchdown by the TitansSpecial teams +17% TEN TEN: Opp touchdown
7 Q2 10:27 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% TEN LA: Punt
8 Q3 0:44 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +3% TEN LA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Justin Hollins (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Greg Mabin (TEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Derrick Henry (TEN RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nate Davis (TEN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashaan Evans (TEN LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 59% · Rams 41%

Final margin
Titans by 12
Luck in points
7.5 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 4.5
Replay with same day's form
Titans 35% · Rams 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2021 games · Titans · Rams

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