luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · November 11, 2021–November 15

Week 10 2021: who deserved to win

5 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: Washington beat the Buccaneers 29–19 in a game they win 17% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 10 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Washington 29–19 vs Buccaneers 23% 17% Lucky
Dolphins 22–10 vs Ravens 26% 36% Lucky
Panthers 34–10 @ Cardinals 30% 53% Coin flip
49ers 31–10 vs Rams 40% 49% Coin flip
Vikings 27–20 @ Chargers 41% 24% Lucky
Eagles 30–13 @ Broncos 47% 70% Deserved

Week 10 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Washington W 29–19 vs Buccaneers 17% +83
2 Vikings W 27–20 @ Chargers 24% +76
3 Dolphins W 22–10 vs Ravens 36% +64
4 Titans W 23–21 vs Saints 37% +63
5 49ers W 31–10 vs Rams 49% +51
6 Panthers W 34–10 @ Cardinals 53% +47
7 Eagles W 30–13 @ Broncos 70% +30
8 Colts W 23–17 vs Jaguars 71% +29
9 Packers W 17–0 vs Seahawks 79% +21
10 Chiefs W 41–14 @ Raiders 84% +16
11 Steelers T 16–16 vs Lions 39% +11
12 Cowboys W 43–3 vs Falcons 95% +5
13 Patriots W 45–7 vs Browns 96% +4
14 Bills W 45–17 @ Jets 96% +4
15 Jets L 17–45 vs Bills 4% −4
16 Browns L 7–45 @ Patriots 4% −4
17 Falcons L 3–43 @ Cowboys 5% −5
18 Lions T 16–16 @ Steelers 61% −11
19 Raiders L 14–41 vs Chiefs 16% −16
20 Seahawks L 0–17 @ Packers 21% −21
21 Jaguars L 17–23 @ Colts 29% −29
22 Broncos L 13–30 vs Eagles 30% −30
23 Cardinals L 10–34 vs Panthers 47% −47
24 Rams L 10–31 @ 49ers 51% −51
25 Saints L 21–23 @ Titans 63% −63
26 Ravens L 10–22 @ Dolphins 64% −64
27 Chargers L 20–27 vs Vikings 76% −76
28 Buccaneers L 19–29 @ Washington 83% −83